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Asteras Tripolis vs Aris - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Greece Greece

Super League Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Tripoli
Mon, Nov 23, 2026
VS
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Asteras Tripolis host Aris in the Super League. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Asteras Tripolis have averaged 1.21 scored and 1.17 conceded recently, against Aris's 1.45 scored and 1.41 conceded. Head-to-head, Asteras Tripolis have won 0 to Aris's 3, with 2 draws. They last met on Sep 10, 2026, ending 1:1. xG projections (1.19 - 1.44) back Aris to edge this. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: NG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Asteras Tripolis
15%
Draws
59%
Aris
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Aris

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Aris come out ahead of Asteras Tripolis on wins alone.
  • Model gives Aris a 59% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Super League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Asteras Tripolis Clean Sheet 16%
Aris Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Asteras Tripolis Aris
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 13
Draws 11 9
Losses 9 7
Goals Scored 1.21 1.45
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 10, 2026 Greek Cup
Asteras Tripolis vs Aris
1:1
Dec 20, 2025 Super League
Asteras Tripolis vs Aris
0:1
Nov 9, 2025 Super League
Aris vs Asteras Tripolis
0:0
Aug 17, 2025 Club Friendly
Aris vs Asteras Tripolis
2:1
May 10, 2025 Super League
Aris vs Asteras Tripolis
4:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Asteras Tripolis 23 / 100
Aris 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Asteras Tripolis Aris

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aris Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Asteras Tripolis found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

Aris's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Asteras Tripolis went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Asteras Tripolis VS Aris
1.25 Goals Scored 1.38
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Asteras Tripolis

(Home)
01 Nov
PAOK
2 : 1
Asteras Tripolis
27 Oct
Asteras Tripolis
0 : 2
Kifisia
24 Oct
Asteras Tripolis
0 : 0
Levadiakos
18 Oct
Panathinaikos
5 : 1
Asteras Tripolis
10 Oct
Asteras Tripolis
2 : 1
Atromitos
Page 1 of 6

Aris

(Away)
01 Nov
Levadiakos
3 : 0
Aris
28 Oct
Panathinaikos
2 : 1
Aris
25 Oct
Aris
3 : 1
Atromitos
18 Oct
Kifisia
1 : 2
Aris
11 Oct
Aris
3 : 2
Volos
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Panathinaikos 9 8 0 1 20:4 24
2 Olympiacos Piraeus 9 7 1 1 15:4 22
3 PAOK 9 6 0 3 18:12 18
4 AEK 8 5 2 1 21:5 17
5 Aris 9 5 1 3 13:17 16
6 OFI Crete 9 5 1 3 14:12 16
7 Kifisia 9 3 2 4 12:14 11
8 Kalamata 9 3 2 4 14:18 11
9 Iraklis FC 9 2 4 3 10:12 10
10 Panetolikos 9 3 0 6 8:17 9
11 Levadiakos 9 1 3 5 3:11 6
12 Asteras Tripolis 9 1 3 5 8:17 6
13 Atromitos 8 1 2 5 9:12 5
14 Volos 9 0 3 6 6:16 0
Promotion - Super League (Championship Group)
Promotion - Super League (Conference League Group)
Relegation - Super League (Relegation Group)