Sport Picks
Aston Villa vs Leeds
England
Premier League 2025/2026 Villa Park, Birmingham 
Match Events
31'
31'
Stach A.
46'
46'
Sub
Gudmundsson G. In: Bijol J.
Out: Gudmundsson G.
61'
61'
Sub
Bailey L. In: Sancho J.
Out: Bailey L.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
90%
6%
4%
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Aston Villa
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
95%
/ Very High Confidence
- Form's been kind to Aston Villa lately — more wins on the board than Leeds.
- Model gives Aston Villa a 90% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Aston Villa Clean Sheet 20%
Leeds Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Aston Villa | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 15 | 11 |
| Draws | 4 | 11 |
| Losses | 10 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 2 | 0.88 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.13 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.00 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.13 | 1.00 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 21, 2026 Premier League
Aston Villa vs Leeds
1:1
Nov 23, 2025 Premier League
Leeds vs Aston Villa
1:2
Jan 13, 2023 Premier League
Aston Villa vs Leeds
2:1
Oct 2, 2022 Premier League
Leeds vs Aston Villa
0:0
Jul 17, 2022 Club Friendly
Aston Villa vs Leeds
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Aston Villa Compare
Top Goalscorer Abraham T.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1
Leeds Compare
Top Goalscorer Stach A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Aston Villa 85 / 100
Leeds 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Aston Villa Leeds
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick AST Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Aston Villa scored in 86% of their last 29 outings.
Leeds let in goals in 75% of their last 28 matches.
Games between these two average 1.80 goals.
Aston Villa went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Aston Villa VS Leeds
2 Goals Scored 0.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Aston Villa
(Home) 25 Jul
FC Porto
2 : 1 Aston Villa
21 Jul
Walsall
0 : 5 Aston Villa
24 May
Manchester City
1 : 2 Aston Villa
20 May
Freiburg
0 : 3 Aston Villa
15 May
Aston Villa
4 : 2 Liverpool
Page 1 of 6
15 May
Aston Villa
4 : 2 Liverpool
07 May
Aston Villa
4 : 0 Nottingham
03 May
Aston Villa
1 : 2 Tottenham
19 Apr
Aston Villa
4 : 3 Sunderland
16 Apr
Aston Villa
4 : 0 Bologna
Page 1 of 3
Leeds
(Away) 24 May
West Ham
3 : 0 Leeds
17 May
Leeds
1 : 0 Brighton
11 May
Tottenham
1 : 1 Leeds
01 May
Leeds
3 : 1 Burnley
26 Apr
Chelsea
1 : 0 Leeds
Page 1 of 6
24 May
West Ham
3 : 0 Leeds
11 May
Tottenham
1 : 1 Leeds
26 Apr
Chelsea
1 : 0 Leeds
22 Apr
Bournemouth
2 : 2 Leeds
13 Apr
Manchester United
1 : 2 Leeds
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 71:27 | 85 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 38 | 23 | 9 | 6 | 77:35 | 78 |
| 3 | Manchester United | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 69:50 | 71 |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 38 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 56:49 | 65 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 63:53 | 60 |
| 6 | Bournemouth | 38 | 13 | 18 | 7 | 58:54 | 57 |
| 7 | Sunderland | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 42:48 | 54 |
| 8 | Brighton | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 52:46 | 53 |
| 9 | Brentford | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 55:52 | 53 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 58:52 | 52 |
| 11 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 47:51 | 52 |
| 12 | Newcastle Utd | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 53:55 | 49 |
| 13 | Everton | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 47:50 | 49 |
| 14 | Leeds | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 49:56 | 47 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 41:51 | 45 |
| 16 | Nottingham | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 48:51 | 44 |
| 17 | Tottenham | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 48:57 | 41 |
| 18 | West Ham | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 46:65 | 39 |
| 19 | Burnley | 38 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 38:75 | 22 |
| 20 | Wolves | 38 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 27:68 | 20 |
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Relegation - Championship (Main)
