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Atalanta vs Parma - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie A New Balance Arena, Bergamo
Our Tip

Match Events

41' Event
Fabbian G.
Assist: Sierro V.
46'
Sub
Drobnic D. In: Ndiaye A.
Out: Drobnic D.
47' Event
Zappacosta D.
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

Parma in this Serie A matchup, with the score ending 0-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Parma.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Atalanta
30%
Draws
47%
Parma
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Parma

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Atalanta have won more games recently than Parma.
  • Model gives Atalanta a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie A form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Atalanta Clean Sheet 15%
Parma Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atalanta Parma
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 11 7
Draws 6 8
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 1.43 0.79
Goals Conceded 1.36 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 2, 2026 Serie A
Atalanta vs Parma
0:3
Jan 25, 2026 Serie A
Atalanta vs Parma
4:0
Aug 30, 2025 Serie A
Parma vs Atalanta
1:1
May 25, 2025 Serie A
Atalanta vs Parma
2:3
Nov 23, 2024 Serie A
Parma vs Atalanta
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atalanta Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Parma Compare

Top Goalscorer Fabbian G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lontani S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atalanta 35 / 100
Parma 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atalanta Parma

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Atalanta found the back of the net in 75% of recent matches (28 games).

Parma's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.

Difficult form: Parma registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Atalanta VS Parma
1.75 Goals Scored 1
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Atalanta

(Home)
02 Nov
Atalanta
0 : 3
Parma
29 Oct
Fiorentina
2 : 2
Atalanta
25 Oct
Atalanta
4 : 4
Frosinone
22 Oct
Ajax
2 : 0
Atalanta
18 Oct
AC Milan
3 : 2
Atalanta
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Parma

(Away)
02 Nov
Atalanta
0 : 3
Parma
28 Oct
Parma
0 : 0
Udinese
24 Oct
Lazio
2 : 1
Parma
19 Oct
Parma
0 : 3
Torino
10 Oct
Inter
3 : 0
Parma
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lazio 10 9 1 0 24:8 28
2 Inter 10 8 1 1 26:13 25
3 AS Roma 10 7 3 0 28:10 24
4 Como 10 7 2 1 18:8 23
5 AC Milan 10 6 3 1 21:12 21
6 Frosinone 10 6 2 2 24:14 20
7 Juventus 10 5 2 3 13:10 17
8 Napoli 10 4 2 4 17:13 14
9 Bologna 10 4 2 4 14:13 14
10 Torino 10 4 1 5 14:16 13
11 Genoa 10 4 1 5 10:14 13
12 Cagliari 10 4 1 5 9:15 13
13 Atalanta 10 3 2 5 16:20 11
14 Lecce 10 3 0 7 11:21 9
15 Parma 10 2 2 6 8:15 8
16 Fiorentina 10 2 2 6 15:23 8
17 Sassuolo 10 2 2 6 16:26 8
18 Monza 10 2 1 7 17:24 7
19 Udinese 10 1 2 7 11:23 5
20 Venezia 10 1 0 9 6:20 3
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B 2027/2028 (Main)