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Stadium Background

Atenas vs La Luz Prediction & H2H Stats

Uruguay Uruguay

Segunda Division
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Nunez M.
12' Event
Prieto A.
Own Goal
66' Event
Nunez M.

AI Match Summary

The Segunda Division game between Atenas and La Luz finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Atenas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Atenas
35%
Draws
28%
La Luz
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Atenas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Atenas carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Atenas a 37% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Atenas Clean Sheet 68%
La Luz Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atenas La Luz
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 7
Draws 7 13
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 1.41 0.79
Goals Conceded 1.28 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 Segunda Division
La Luz vs Atenas
0:1
Jun 14, 2026 Segunda Division
Atenas vs La Luz
4:0
Apr 4, 2026 Segunda Division
La Luz vs Atenas
2:1
Sep 13, 2025 Segunda Division
Atenas vs La Luz
2:3
Jun 24, 2025 Segunda Division
La Luz vs Atenas
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atenas Compare

Top Goalscorer Nunez M.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Sosa G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

La Luz Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atenas 59 / 100
La Luz 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atenas La Luz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Atenas Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atenas went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Atenas found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

La Luz has conceded goals in 55% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Atenas VS La Luz
1.25 Goals Scored 0.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Atenas

(Home)
27 Sept
Atenas
0 : 0
Plaza Colonia
24 Sept
Montevideo City
3 : 3
Atenas
19 Sept
La Luz
0 : 1
Atenas
13 Sept
Atenas
0 : 0
Cerrito
06 Sept
Atenas
3 : 2
River Plate Montevideo
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La Luz

(Away)
27 Sept
Cerrito
1 : 2
La Luz
19 Sept
La Luz
0 : 1
Atenas
12 Sept
Paysandu FC
0 : 1
La Luz
04 Sept
La Luz
1 : 3
Huracan FC
29 Aug
Uruguay Montevideo FC
0 : 0
La Luz
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atenas 20 11 4 5 29:18 37
2 Plaza Colonia 20 9 5 6 25:18 32
3 Club Oriental De Futbol 20 8 7 5 29:22 31
4 River Plate Montevideo 20 8 6 6 29:23 30
5 Rentistas 20 8 6 6 24:22 30
6 Colon 20 8 5 7 20:23 29
7 Fenix 20 6 8 6 25:24 26
8 Cerrito 20 6 8 6 24:23 26
9 Huracan FC 20 7 5 8 21:26 26
10 Paysandu FC 20 7 4 9 26:27 25
11 Tacuarembo 20 6 6 8 16:22 24
12 La Luz 20 6 6 8 16:22 24
13 Miramar 20 5 7 8 22:26 22
14 Uruguay Montevideo FC 20 4 5 11 19:29 17
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya 2027 (Apertura)