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Athletic Palermo vs USD Ragusa

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Micoli N.
25' Event
Bonfiglio F.
71' Event
Rafele G.

AI Match Summary

Athletic Palermo in this Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Athletic Palermo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Athletic Palermo
30%
Draws
23%
USD Ragusa
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Athletic Palermo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • USD Ragusa haven't matched Athletic Palermo's recent run of results.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Athletic Palermo Clean Sheet 19%
USD Ragusa Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Athletic Palermo USD Ragusa
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 16 7
Draws 3 11
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 1.76 0.72
Goals Conceded 1.41 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Serie D - Group I
USD Ragusa vs Athletic Palermo
1:2
Dec 21, 2025 Serie D - Group I
Athletic Palermo vs USD Ragusa
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Athletic Palermo Compare

Top Goalscorer Micoli N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bonfiglio F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

USD Ragusa Compare

Top Goalscorer Rafele G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Athletic Palermo 32 / 100
USD Ragusa 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Athletic Palermo USD Ragusa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Athletic Palermo scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

USD Ragusa's defensive record shows goals conceded in 55% of 29 matches.

Recent resilience: Athletic Palermo stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Athletic Palermo VS USD Ragusa
1.38 Goals Scored 0.38
2.13 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 38%
88% Over 2.5 13%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Athletic Palermo

(Home)
10 May
Reggina
1 : 0
Athletic Palermo
03 May
USD Ragusa
1 : 2
Athletic Palermo
26 Apr
Athletic Palermo
1 : 3
A.C. Savoia
19 Apr
Vibonese
2 : 3
Athletic Palermo
12 Apr
Athletic Palermo
0 : 3
Castrumfavara
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USD Ragusa

(Away)
10 May
USD Ragusa
0 : 0
ACR Messina
03 May
USD Ragusa
1 : 2
Athletic Palermo
26 Apr
AS Acireale
0 : 0
USD Ragusa
19 Apr
USD Ragusa
0 : 0
Sancataldese
12 Apr
ACR Messina
1 : 0
USD Ragusa
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 A.C. Savoia 34 20 9 5 63:29 69
2 Nissa 34 19 10 5 51:27 67
3 Reggina 34 20 6 8 44:23 66
4 Athletic Palermo 34 18 6 10 59:47 60
5 Gelbison 34 17 9 8 44:32 60
6 Sambiase 34 14 11 9 38:30 53
7 Igea Virtus 34 15 13 6 49:36 53
8 Milazzo 34 12 8 14 31:36 44
9 Gela 34 13 5 16 41:44 43
10 Lamezia 34 11 9 14 43:35 42
11 Castrumfavara 34 10 8 16 38:47 38
12 Enna 34 8 12 14 50:53 36
13 Vibonese 34 8 11 15 32:47 35
14 USD Ragusa 34 7 13 14 23:34 34
15 ACR Messina 34 11 13 10 28:33 32
16 AS Acireale 34 7 12 15 37:50 32
17 Sancataldese 34 7 8 19 31:49 29
18 Paterno 34 4 7 23 22:72 19
Promotion - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Out)