Sport Picks
Athletico-PR vs Atletico-MG - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Brazil
Serie A Betano Arena da Baixada, Curitiba 
Match Events
8'
8'
Calderon Vargas K. A.
Assist: Gilberto
27'
27'
Bernard
38'
38'
Sub
Fred In: Victor Hugo
Out: Fred
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Serie A Betano matchup, with the score ending 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
30%
39%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Atletico-MG
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
39%
/ Low Confidence
- Atletico-MG have won more games recently than Athletico-PR.
- 39% — that's where the model lands on Atletico-MG taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 89%
Over 1.5 Goals 79.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Athletico-PR Clean Sheet 23%
Atletico-MG Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Athletico-PR | Atletico-MG |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 13 | 15 |
| Draws | 7 | 10 |
| Losses | 8 | 4 |
| Goals Scored | 1.39 | 1.52 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.14 | 0.97 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 8, 2026 Serie A Betano
Athletico-PR vs Atletico-MG
2:2
Apr 5, 2026 Serie A Betano
Atletico-MG vs Athletico-PR
2:1
Dec 8, 2024 Serie A Betano
Atletico-MG vs Athletico-PR
1:0
Nov 16, 2024 Serie A Betano
Athletico-PR vs Atletico-MG
1:0
Sep 2, 2023 Serie A Betano
Athletico-PR vs Atletico-MG
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Athletico-PR Compare
Top Goalscorer Calderon Vargas K. A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Viveros K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6
Atletico-MG Compare
Top Goalscorer Bernard
1 Goals Assists Leader Lyanco
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Athletico-PR 29 / 100
Atletico-MG 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Athletico-PR Atletico-MG
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Atletico-MG Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Atletico-MG has conceded goals in 83% of their last 29 outings.
H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.
Athletico-PR went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Athletico-PR found the back of the net in 54% of recent matches (28 games).
Scoring Trends
Athletico-PR VS Atletico-MG
1.71 Goals Scored 1.25
1.71 Goals Conceded 1.25
71% Over 1.5 88%
71% Over 2.5 50%
57% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Athletico-PR
(Home) 20 Sept
Athletico-PR
2 : 1 Bahia
12 Sept
Coritiba
3 : 3 Athletico-PR
06 Sept
Cruzeiro
3 : 1 Athletico-PR
30 Aug
Athletico-PR
3 : 3 Fluminense
24 Aug
Botafogo RJ
2 : 3 Athletico-PR
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Athletico-PR
2 : 1 Bahia
30 Aug
Athletico-PR
3 : 3 Fluminense
15 Aug
Athletico-PR
1 : 1 Bragantino
04 Aug
Athletico-PR
2 : 0 Vitoria
25 Jul
Athletico-PR
2 : 0 Internacional
Page 1 of 3
Atletico-MG
(Away) 03 Oct
Atletico-MG
1 : 0 Bragantino
19 Sept
Atletico-MG
1 : 1 Chapecoense-SC
16 Sept
Atletico-MG
5 : 2 Santos
12 Sept
Atletico-MG
3 : 1 Fluminense
09 Sept
Santos
2 : 0 Atletico-MG
Page 1 of 6
09 Sept
Santos
2 : 0 Atletico-MG
05 Sept
Sao Paulo
2 : 0 Atletico-MG
26 Aug
Cruzeiro
1 : 1 Atletico-MG
22 Aug
Internacional
0 : 0 Atletico-MG
12 Aug
Bragantino
0 : 1 Atletico-MG
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo RJ | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 55:23 | 60 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 47:21 | 57 |
| 3 | Athletico-PR | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 43:32 | 49 |
| 4 | Cruzeiro | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 44:40 | 48 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 44:36 | 48 |
| 6 | Bahia | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 43:35 | 46 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 28 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 37:32 | 43 |
| 8 | Santos | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 43:41 | 41 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 37:43 | 38 |
| 10 | Bragantino | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 34:33 | 37 |
| 11 | Sao Paulo | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 33:34 | 36 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 32:42 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo RJ | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 42:47 | 35 |
| 14 | Vasco | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 36:42 | 34 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 34:43 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 30:34 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 32:37 | 31 |
| 18 | Gremio | 29 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 31:39 | 30 |
| 19 | Remo | 29 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 33:48 | 24 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-SC | 28 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 29:57 | 18 |
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana 2027 (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B 2027 (Main)
