Sport Picks
Athletico-PR vs Bahia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Brazil
Serie A Arena da Baixada, Curitiba 
Match Events
16'
16'
Esquivel L.
Assist: Calderon Vargas K. A.
26'
26'
Erick Pulga
30'
30'
Acevedo N.
AI Match Summary
Athletico-PR in this Serie A matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Athletico-PR.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
29%
20%
51%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Bahia
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
20%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Athletico-PR lately — more wins on the board than Bahia.
- 36% — that's where the model lands on Athletico-PR taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Athletico-PR Clean Sheet 20%
Bahia Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Athletico-PR | Bahia |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 11 | 10 |
| Draws | 9 | 9 |
| Losses | 9 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.31 | 1.48 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.28 | 1.52 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 20, 2026 Serie A
Athletico-PR vs Bahia
2:1
Apr 1, 2026 Serie A
Bahia vs Athletico-PR
3:0
Nov 24, 2024 Serie A
Bahia vs Athletico-PR
1:1
Jul 10, 2024 Serie A
Athletico-PR vs Bahia
1:3
Nov 12, 2023 Serie A
Bahia vs Athletico-PR
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Athletico-PR Compare
Top Goalscorer Esquivel L.
1 Goals Assists Leader Rivaldo J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6
Bahia Compare
Top Goalscorer Erick Pulga
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Athletico-PR 36 / 100
Bahia 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Athletico-PR Bahia
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Bahia has conceded goals in 83% of their last 29 outings.
Athletico-PR scored in 62% of their last 29 games.
Games between these two average 2.80 goals.
Athletico-PR has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Athletico-PR VS Bahia
1.63 Goals Scored 1.38
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Athletico-PR
(Home) 04 Nov
Athletico-PR
1 : 3 Vasco
30 Oct
Gremio
2 : 0 Athletico-PR
24 Oct
Vitoria
1 : 1 Athletico-PR
17 Oct
Athletico-PR
0 : 2 Palmeiras
12 Oct
Chapecoense-SC
1 : 4 Athletico-PR
Page 1 of 6
04 Nov
Athletico-PR
1 : 3 Vasco
17 Oct
Athletico-PR
0 : 2 Palmeiras
08 Oct
Athletico-PR
2 : 2 Atletico-MG
20 Sept
Athletico-PR
2 : 1 Bahia
30 Aug
Athletico-PR
3 : 3 Fluminense
Page 1 of 3
Bahia
(Away) 06 Nov
Cruzeiro
3 : 2 Bahia
29 Oct
Bahia
3 : 2 Sao Paulo
25 Oct
Santos
1 : 1 Bahia
18 Oct
Bahia
0 : 3 Flamengo RJ
11 Oct
Bahia
1 : 0 Mirassol
Page 1 of 6
06 Nov
Cruzeiro
3 : 2 Bahia
25 Oct
Santos
1 : 1 Bahia
09 Oct
Palmeiras
1 : 0 Bahia
20 Sept
Athletico-PR
2 : 1 Bahia
05 Sept
Bragantino
2 : 3 Bahia
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo RJ | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 71:29 | 76 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 34 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 62:23 | 73 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 55:48 | 60 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 55:42 | 57 |
| 5 | Athletico-PR | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 51:43 | 54 |
| 6 | Bahia | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 50:45 | 53 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 44:40 | 50 |
| 8 | Bragantino | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 44:39 | 47 |
| 9 | Santos | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 50:49 | 47 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 39:39 | 44 |
| 11 | Botafogo RJ | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 46:53 | 42 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 40:51 | 42 |
| 13 | Vasco | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 43:50 | 41 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 39:48 | 40 |
| 15 | Vitoria | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 35:51 | 38 |
| 16 | Internacional | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 38:42 | 38 |
| 17 | Corinthians | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 36:42 | 37 |
| 18 | Gremio | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 38:47 | 37 |
| 19 | Remo | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 37:57 | 29 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-SC | 33 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 33:68 | 21 |
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana 2027 (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B 2027 (Main)
