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Athletico-PR vs Palmeiras - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Serie A Betano Arena da Baixada, Curitiba
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
10:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Athletico-PR host Palmeiras in the Serie A Betano. Little to choose between these two on current form. Recent numbers: Athletico-PR at 1.41 goals for, 1.17 against; Palmeiras at 1.73 for, 0.7 against. Past meetings favor Palmeiras slightly — 1-3-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 19, 2026, ending 1:0. Model xG sits at 1.20 vs 1.00, favoring Palmeiras. The model calls this a Draw — both sides look evenly matched.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Athletico-PR
35%
Draws
42%
Palmeiras
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Palmeiras

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Palmeiras lately — more wins on the board than Athletico-PR.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Athletico-PR Clean Sheet 20%
Palmeiras Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Athletico-PR Palmeiras
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 13 17
Draws 8 9
Losses 8 4
Goals Scored 1.41 1.73
Goals Conceded 1.17 0.7
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Serie A Betano
Palmeiras vs Athletico-PR
1:0
Sep 1, 2024 Serie A Betano
Athletico-PR vs Palmeiras
0:2
May 12, 2024 Serie A Betano
Palmeiras vs Athletico-PR
0:2
Nov 5, 2023 Serie A Betano
Palmeiras vs Athletico-PR
1:0
Jul 2, 2023 Serie A Betano
Athletico-PR vs Palmeiras
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Athletico-PR 32 / 100
Palmeiras 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Athletico-PR Palmeiras

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Athletico-PR went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Athletico-PR found the back of the net in 55% of recent matches (29 games).

Palmeiras has conceded goals in 47% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Athletico-PR VS Palmeiras
1.75 Goals Scored 1.75
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Athletico-PR

(Home)
08 Oct
Athletico-PR
2 : 2
Atletico-MG
20 Sept
Athletico-PR
2 : 1
Bahia
12 Sept
Coritiba
3 : 3
Athletico-PR
06 Sept
Cruzeiro
3 : 1
Athletico-PR
30 Aug
Athletico-PR
3 : 3
Fluminense
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Palmeiras

(Away)
09 Oct
Palmeiras
1 : 0
Bahia
20 Sept
Gremio
0 : 0
Palmeiras
16 Sept
LDU Quito
3 : 3
Palmeiras
12 Sept
Palmeiras
2 : 0
Sao Paulo
09 Sept
Palmeiras
1 : 0
LDU Quito
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Flamengo RJ 29 18 7 4 57:25 61
2 Palmeiras 29 17 9 3 48:21 60
3 Fluminense 29 14 9 6 48:36 51
4 Athletico-PR 29 14 8 7 45:34 50
5 Cruzeiro 29 14 6 9 44:40 48
6 Bahia 29 12 10 7 43:36 46
7 Atletico-MG 29 12 8 9 39:34 44
8 Santos 29 11 9 9 45:43 42
9 Coritiba 29 10 8 11 37:47 38
10 Bragantino 29 10 7 12 34:33 37
11 Sao Paulo 29 10 6 13 33:34 36
12 Vitoria 29 10 6 13 32:42 36
13 Botafogo RJ 29 9 8 12 42:47 35
14 Vasco 28 9 7 12 36:42 34
15 Mirassol 29 8 9 12 34:43 33
16 Corinthians 29 8 8 13 30:34 32
17 Internacional 29 7 10 12 32:37 31
18 Gremio 29 7 9 13 31:39 30
19 Remo 29 5 9 15 33:48 24
20 Chapecoense-SC 28 3 9 16 29:57 18
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana 2027 (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B 2027 (Main)