Sport Picks
Atl. Madrid vs Arsenal Prediction & H2H Stats
Europe
Champions League 2025/2026 Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid 
Match Events
44'
44'
Gyokeres V.
(Penalty)
46'
46'
Sub
Simeone G. In: Le Normand R.
Out: Simeone G.
56'
56'
Alvarez J.
(Penalty)
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Champions League 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-1. Extra time or penalties follow.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
36%
15%
49%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Arsenal
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
36%
/ Low Confidence
- Arsenal have won more games recently than Atl. Madrid.
- Model gives Atl. Madrid a 36% chance of winning this.
- Arsenal arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Atl. Madrid, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Atl. Madrid Clean Sheet 68%
Arsenal Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Atl. Madrid | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 30 |
| Wins | 15 | 19 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 14 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.84 | 1.57 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.58 | 0.93 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 1.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 5, 2026 Champions League
Arsenal vs Atl. Madrid
1:0
Apr 29, 2026 Champions League
Atl. Madrid vs Arsenal
1:1
Oct 21, 2025 Champions League
Arsenal vs Atl. Madrid
4:0
Jul 26, 2018 International Champions Cup
Atl. Madrid vs Arsenal
2:1
May 3, 2018 Europa League
Atl. Madrid vs Arsenal
1:0
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Atl. Madrid 50 / 100
Arsenal 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Atl. Madrid Arsenal
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Atl. Madrid Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Atl. Madrid scored in 90% of their last 31 games.
Games between these two average 2.20 goals.
Atl. Madrid has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Arsenal let in goals in 53% of their last 30 matches.
Scoring Trends
Atl. Madrid VS Arsenal
1.75 Goals Scored 2
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.63
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Atl. Madrid
(Home) 20 Sept
Atl. Madrid
2 : 1 Real Madrid
16 Sept
Atl. Madrid
4 : 0 Osasuna
13 Sept
Real Sociedad
0 : 3 Atl. Madrid
09 Sept
Liverpool
2 : 1 Atl. Madrid
05 Sept
Ath Bilbao
3 : 0 Atl. Madrid
Page 1 of 7
20 Sept
Atl. Madrid
2 : 1 Real Madrid
16 Sept
Atl. Madrid
4 : 0 Osasuna
23 Aug
Atl. Madrid
2 : 2 Villarreal
19 Aug
Atl. Madrid
2 : 0 Malaga
29 Jul
Atl. Madrid
4 : 1 Getafe
Page 1 of 3
Arsenal
(Away) 19 Sept
Brighton
3 : 0 Arsenal
15 Sept
Ipswich
2 : 4 Arsenal
12 Sept
Sunderland
0 : 2 Arsenal
09 Sept
Napoli
0 : 1 Arsenal
06 Sept
Arsenal
2 : 1 Chelsea
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Brighton
3 : 0 Arsenal
15 Sept
Ipswich
2 : 4 Arsenal
12 Sept
Sunderland
0 : 2 Arsenal
09 Sept
Napoli
0 : 1 Arsenal
31 Aug
Aston Villa
0 : 1 Arsenal
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Monaco 4
PSG 5
Chelsea -
TBD -
Galatasaray 7
Juventus 5
Liverpool -
TBD -
Benfica 1
Real Madrid 3
Manchester City -
TBD -
Dortmund 3
Atalanta 4
Bayern Munich -
TBD -
Qarabag Agdam 3
Newcastle Utd 9
Barcelona -
TBD -
Club Brugge 4
Atl. Madrid 7
Tottenham -
TBD -
Bodo/Glimt 5
Inter 2
Sporting CP -
TBD -
Olympiacos Piraeus 0
Bayer Leverkusen 2
Arsenal -
TBD -
1/8-finals
PSG 8
Chelsea 2
Galatasaray 1
Liverpool 4
Real Madrid 5
Manchester City 1
Atalanta 2
Bayern Munich 10
Newcastle Utd 3
Barcelona 8
Atl. Madrid 7
Tottenham 5
Bodo/Glimt 3
Sporting CP 5
Bayer Leverkusen 1
Arsenal 3
Quarter-finals
PSG 4
Liverpool 0
Real Madrid 4
Bayern Munich 6
Barcelona 2
Atl. Madrid 3
Sporting CP 0
Arsenal 1
Semi-finals
PSG 6
Bayern Munich 5
Atl. Madrid 1
Arsenal 2
Final
PSG 2
Arsenal 1
