Sport Picks
Atl. Madrid vs Girona
Spain
LaLiga 2025/2026 Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid 
Match Events
21'
21'
Lookman A.
Assist: Griezmann A.
23'
23'
Le Normand R.
46'
46'
Sub
Simeone G. In: Almada T.
Out: Simeone G.
AI Match Summary
Atl. Madrid in this LaLiga 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Atl. Madrid.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
36%
15%
49%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Girona
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
15%
/ Low Confidence
- Atl. Madrid have won more games recently than Girona.
- Atl. Madrid are the model's pick here, at 36%.
- Regular LaLiga 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and Atl. Madrid have taken 5 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Atl. Madrid Clean Sheet 13%
Girona Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Atl. Madrid | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 14 | 8 |
| Draws | 2 | 11 |
| Losses | 14 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.8 | 1.45 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.57 | 1.34 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.56 | 1.69 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 17, 2026 LaLiga
Atl. Madrid vs Girona
1:0
Dec 21, 2025 LaLiga
Girona vs Atl. Madrid
0:3
May 25, 2025 LaLiga
Girona vs Atl. Madrid
0:4
Aug 25, 2024 LaLiga
Atl. Madrid vs Girona
3:0
Apr 13, 2024 LaLiga
Atl. Madrid vs Girona
3:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Atl. Madrid Compare
Top Goalscorer Lookman A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78
Girona Compare
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Atl. Madrid 35 / 100
Girona 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Atl. Madrid Girona
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Atl. Madrid scored in 90% of their last 30 outings.
Girona let in goals in 86% of their last 29 matches.
H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.
Atl. Madrid has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Atl. Madrid VS Girona
1.75 Goals Scored 1.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Atl. Madrid
(Home) 20 Sept
Atl. Madrid
2 : 1 Real Madrid
16 Sept
Atl. Madrid
4 : 0 Osasuna
13 Sept
Real Sociedad
0 : 3 Atl. Madrid
09 Sept
Liverpool
2 : 1 Atl. Madrid
05 Sept
Ath Bilbao
3 : 0 Atl. Madrid
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Atl. Madrid
2 : 1 Real Madrid
16 Sept
Atl. Madrid
4 : 0 Osasuna
23 Aug
Atl. Madrid
2 : 2 Villarreal
19 Aug
Atl. Madrid
2 : 0 Malaga
29 Jul
Atl. Madrid
4 : 1 Getafe
Page 1 of 3
Girona
(Away) 25 Sept
Girona
2 : 0 Albacete
19 Sept
Cadiz
1 : 2 Girona
12 Sept
Girona
1 : 2 Castellon
05 Sept
Gijon
0 : 2 Girona
29 Aug
Girona
5 : 2 Las Palmas
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Cadiz
1 : 2 Girona
05 Sept
Gijon
0 : 2 Girona
21 Aug
Cordoba
2 : 1 Girona
08 Aug
Gimnastic de Tarragona
1 : 1 Girona
22 Jul
Olot
1 : 3 Girona
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 38 | 31 | 1 | 6 | 95:36 | 94 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 27 | 5 | 6 | 77:35 | 86 |
| 3 | Villarreal | 38 | 22 | 6 | 10 | 72:46 | 72 |
| 4 | Atl. Madrid | 38 | 21 | 6 | 11 | 62:44 | 69 |
| 5 | Betis | 38 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 59:48 | 60 |
| 6 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 53:48 | 54 |
| 7 | Getafe | 38 | 15 | 6 | 17 | 32:38 | 51 |
| 8 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 41:44 | 50 |
| 9 | Valencia | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 46:55 | 49 |
| 10 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 59:61 | 46 |
| 11 | Espanyol | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 43:55 | 46 |
| 12 | Ath Bilbao | 38 | 13 | 6 | 19 | 43:58 | 45 |
| 13 | Sevilla | 38 | 12 | 7 | 19 | 46:60 | 43 |
| 14 | Alaves | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 44:56 | 43 |
| 15 | Elche | 38 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 49:57 | 43 |
| 16 | Levante | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 47:61 | 42 |
| 17 | Osasuna | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 44:50 | 42 |
| 18 | Mallorca | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 47:57 | 42 |
| 19 | Girona | 38 | 9 | 14 | 15 | 39:55 | 41 |
| 20 | Real Oviedo | 38 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 26:60 | 29 |
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2 (Main)
