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Atl. Madrid W vs Valencia W - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Liga F Women Centro Deportivo Alcala de Henares, Madrid
Fri, Oct 23, 2026
VS
05:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Atl. Madrid W host Valencia W in the Liga F Women. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Atl. Madrid W have averaged 1.45 scored and 1.17 conceded recently, against Valencia W's 1.34 scored and 1.34 conceded. Head-to-head, Atl. Madrid W have won 5 to Valencia W's 0, with 0 draws. They last met on Mar 29, 2025, ending 3:0. Model xG sits at 1.88 vs 1.31, favoring Atl. Madrid W. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Atl. Madrid W
15%
Draws
0%
Valencia W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Atl. Madrid W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Atl. Madrid W have won more games recently than Valencia W.
  • Model gives Atl. Madrid W a 85% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga F Women form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Atl. Madrid W have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Atl. Madrid W Clean Sheet 18%
Valencia W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atl. Madrid W Valencia W
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 14 9
Draws 4 9
Losses 11 11
Goals Scored 1.45 1.34
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 29, 2025 Liga F Women
Atl. Madrid W vs Valencia W
3:0
Sep 22, 2024 Liga F Women
Valencia W vs Atl. Madrid W
0:4
Mar 30, 2024 Liga F Women
Atl. Madrid W vs Valencia W
1:0
Jan 7, 2024 Liga F Women
Valencia W vs Atl. Madrid W
1:6
Apr 1, 2023 Liga F Women
Atl. Madrid W vs Valencia W
6:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atl. Madrid W 58 / 100
Valencia W 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atl. Madrid W Valencia W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Atl. Madrid W Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 4.60 goals per match.

Difficult form: Valencia W registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

Atl. Madrid W scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: Valencia W conceded in 69% of 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Atl. Madrid W VS Valencia W
1.25 Goals Scored 1.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.5
50% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Atl. Madrid W

(Home)
03 Oct
Dep. A Coruna W
1 : 2
Atl. Madrid W
27 Sept
Athletic Bilbao W
3 : 2
Atl. Madrid W
19 Sept
Atl. Madrid W
1 : 0
Logrono W
12 Sept
Barcelona W
4 : 2
Atl. Madrid W
06 Sept
Atl. Madrid W
1 : 0
Alaves W
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Valencia W

(Away)
04 Oct
Valencia W
0 : 1
Real Sociedad W
27 Sept
Valencia W
1 : 2
Costa Adeje Tenerife W
19 Sept
Real Madrid W
3 : 1
Valencia W
13 Sept
Logrono W
2 : 1
Valencia W
05 Sept
Valencia W
1 : 3
Madrid CFF W
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Barcelona W 6 6 0 0 28:2 18
2 Madrid CFF W 6 4 1 1 11:9 13
3 Real Madrid W 6 4 1 1 13:13 13
4 Athletic Bilbao W 6 3 2 1 11:8 11
5 Eibar W 6 3 2 1 4:4 11
6 Atl. Madrid W 6 3 0 3 10:11 9
7 Espanyol W 6 2 2 2 9:6 8
8 Badalona W 6 2 2 2 9:8 8
9 Costa Adeje Tenerife W 6 2 2 2 6:11 8
10 Sevilla W 6 2 1 3 7:10 7
11 Granada CF W 6 2 1 3 5:9 7
12 Logrono W 6 2 0 4 5:7 6
13 Alaves W 6 2 0 4 3:9 6
14 Dep. A Coruna W 6 1 2 3 5:6 5
15 Real Sociedad W 6 1 2 3 7:11 5
16 Valencia W 6 0 0 6 4:13 0
Relegation - Primera Federacion Women 2027/2028 (Main)