Sport Picks
Atl. Nacional vs Dep. Pasto - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Colombia
Primera A Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellín 
AI Match Summary
Atl. Nacional host Dep. Pasto in the Primera A. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Atl. Nacional have averaged 1.87 scored and 0.84 conceded recently, against Dep. Pasto's 1.18 scored and 1.54 conceded. Head-to-head, Atl. Nacional have won 4 to Dep. Pasto's 0, with 1 draws. They last met on Mar 29, 2026, ending 1:2. Model xG sits at 1.50 vs 0.81, favoring Atl. Nacional. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- Atl. Nacional have won more games recently than Dep. Pasto.
- Model gives Atl. Nacional a 37% chance of winning this.
- Regular Primera A form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Atl. Nacional have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Atl. Nacional | Dep. Pasto |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 28 |
| Wins | 21 | 9 |
| Draws | 4 | 4 |
| Losses | 6 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 1.87 | 1.18 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.84 | 1.54 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 0.81 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Solid form: Atl. Nacional remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.
Atl. Nacional found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (31 games).
Dep. Pasto has conceded goals in 71% of their last 28 outings.
Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.
Scoring Trends
Recent Form & Match History
Atl. Nacional
(Home)Dep. Pasto
(Away)League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America De Cali | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 25:9 | 27 |
| 2 | Dep. Cali | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 20:9 | 25 |
| 3 | Bucaramanga | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 21:11 | 24 |
| 4 | Atl. Nacional | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 21:10 | 23 |
| 5 | Ind. Medellin | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 21:17 | 23 |
| 6 | Santa Fe | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 19:12 | 22 |
| 7 | Millonarios | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 19:12 | 22 |
| 8 | Deportes Tolima | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 17:16 | 20 |
| 9 | Cucuta | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 10 | Once Caldas | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 16:16 | 16 |
| 11 | Aguilas Doradas | 13 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 17:18 | 16 |
| 12 | Llaneros | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 15:17 | 14 |
| 13 | Inter Bogotá | 14 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 16:20 | 14 |
| 14 | Chico | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 10:19 | 12 |
| 15 | Alianza | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 14:26 | 12 |
| 16 | Junior | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 19:23 | 11 |
| 17 | Fortaleza C.E.I.F. | 13 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 14:19 | 11 |
| 18 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14:22 | 10 |
| 19 | Dep. Pereira | 13 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 8:18 | 10 |
| 20 | Dep. Pasto | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9:18 | 9 |
