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FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

USA USA

MLS TQL Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Sun, Oct 18, 2026
VS
09:00 PM
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AI Match Summary

FC Cincinnati host Columbus Crew in the MLS. This one's hard to separate. Columbus Crew have shipped 1.53 goals a game lately, while FC Cincinnati have conceded 2.21 and scored 2.29. Head-to-head, FC Cincinnati have won 2 to Columbus Crew's 3, with 0 draws. They last met on Jul 25, 2026, ending 2:1. Model xG sits at 1.19 vs 1.81, favoring FC Cincinnati. The model calls this a Draw — both sides look evenly matched.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
FC Cincinnati
20%
Draws
51%
Columbus Crew
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Columbus Crew

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Columbus Crew have won more games recently than FC Cincinnati.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Regular MLS form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81.8%
FC Cincinnati Clean Sheet 11%
Columbus Crew Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Cincinnati Columbus Crew
Matches Played 28 32
Wins 11 14
Draws 9 4
Losses 8 14
Goals Scored 2.29 1.66
Goals Conceded 2.21 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 25, 2026 MLS
Columbus Crew vs FC Cincinnati
2:1
Nov 8, 2025 MLS
FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew
2:1
Nov 2, 2025 MLS
Columbus Crew vs FC Cincinnati
4:0
Oct 27, 2025 MLS
FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew
1:0
Jul 12, 2025 MLS
FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew
2:4

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Cincinnati 30 / 100
Columbus Crew 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Cincinnati Columbus Crew

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FC Cincinnati scored in 89% of their last 28 games.

Columbus Crew let in goals in 84% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

FC Cincinnati went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

FC Cincinnati VS Columbus Crew
1.13 Goals Scored 1.38
2.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
75% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Cincinnati

(Home)
10 Oct
Atlanta United
1 : 3
FC Cincinnati
26 Sept
CF Montreal
3 : 1
FC Cincinnati
20 Sept
Houston Dynamo
2 : 2
FC Cincinnati
12 Sept
FC Cincinnati
3 : 3
Charlotte FC
09 Sept
Philadelphia Union
5 : 0
FC Cincinnati
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Columbus Crew

(Away)
10 Oct
Orlando City
3 : 2
Columbus Crew
27 Sept
Columbus Crew
2 : 1
Inter Miami
19 Sept
CF Montreal
0 : 2
Columbus Crew
16 Sept
Columbus Crew
2 : 1
Orlando City
12 Sept
Columbus Crew
0 : 1
New York Red Bulls
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 29 15 7 7 61:30 52
2 St. Louis City 29 14 9 6 54:38 51
3 FC Dallas 29 14 8 7 53:45 50
4 San Jose Earthquakes 29 13 8 8 51:41 47
5 Houston Dynamo 29 13 7 9 39:37 46
6 Los Angeles FC 30 12 9 9 47:32 45
7 Seattle Sounders 29 11 8 10 38:36 41
8 Los Angeles Galaxy 30 10 9 11 41:50 39
9 Colorado Rapids 29 11 5 13 41:41 38
10 Portland Timbers 29 9 6 14 51:56 33
11 Real Salt Lake 29 9 6 14 42:47 33
12 San Diego FC 29 8 9 12 51:54 33
13 Minnesota United 29 7 10 12 44:53 31
14 Austin FC 29 7 10 12 37:54 31
15 Sporting Kansas City 29 6 4 19 35:72 22
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nashville SC 29 20 6 3 63:22 66
2 Inter Miami 29 14 10 5 70:50 52
3 New England Revolution 29 15 4 10 48:41 49
4 Chicago Fire 29 14 6 9 52:43 48
5 Charlotte FC 29 13 7 9 51:43 46
6 Philadelphia Union 29 13 6 10 59:46 45
7 Orlando City 29 11 5 13 54:69 38
8 New York Red Bulls 29 10 6 13 39:54 36
9 FC Cincinnati 28 9 9 10 60:68 36
10 New York City 29 8 9 12 42:40 33
11 Toronto FC 29 7 12 10 44:55 33
12 DC United 28 7 12 9 36:47 33
13 Columbus Crew 29 9 5 15 44:47 32
14 Atlanta United 29 8 6 15 36:48 30
15 CF Montreal 29 6 6 17 35:59 24
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)