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Atl. Rafaela vs Nueva Chicago Prediction & H2H Stats

Argentina Argentina

Primera Nacional Estadio Nuevo Monumental, Rafaela
Atl. Rafaela Logo

Atl. Rafaela

1 - 0
FT
Nueva Chicago Logo

Nueva Chicago

Our Tip

Match Events

55'
Cainelli N.
61'
Pardo M.
64'
Sub
Moreno M. In: Rodriguez A.
Out: Moreno M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Primera Nacional game between Atl. Rafaela and Nueva Chicago finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Atl. Rafaela.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Atl. Rafaela
15%
Draws
46%
Nueva Chicago
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Nueva Chicago

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Atl. Rafaela come out ahead of Nueva Chicago on wins alone.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Atl. Rafaela taking it.
  • Regular Primera Nacional form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 21%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.4%
Atl. Rafaela Clean Sheet 68%
Nueva Chicago Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atl. Rafaela Nueva Chicago
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 11 8
Draws 8 8
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 0.8 0.76
Goals Conceded 0.93 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 25, 2026 Primera Nacional
Atl. Rafaela vs Nueva Chicago
1:0
Jun 23, 2026 Primera Nacional
Nueva Chicago vs Atl. Rafaela
0:0
Jul 19, 2024 Primera Nacional
Atl. Rafaela vs Nueva Chicago
1:5
Mar 1, 2024 Primera Nacional
Nueva Chicago vs Atl. Rafaela
2:0
Apr 24, 2022 Primera Nacional
Atl. Rafaela vs Nueva Chicago
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atl. Rafaela Compare

Top Goalscorer Solveyra A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Nueva Chicago Compare

Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atl. Rafaela 51 / 100
Nueva Chicago 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atl. Rafaela Nueva Chicago

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nueva Chicago has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Atl. Rafaela scored in 57% of their last 30 outings.

Recent resilience: Atl. Rafaela stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Atl. Rafaela VS Nueva Chicago
1.13 Goals Scored 0.25
1 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 38%
38% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Atl. Rafaela

(Home)
27 Sept
Gimnasia y Tiro
1 : 0
Atl. Rafaela
19 Sept
Atl. Rafaela
4 : 2
San Martin T.
13 Sept
Gimnasia Jujuy
2 : 1
Atl. Rafaela
06 Sept
Agropecuario
2 : 0
Atl. Rafaela
29 Aug
Atl. Rafaela
2 : 1
Tristan Suarez
Page 1 of 6

Nueva Chicago

(Away)
27 Sept
Almagro
0 : 1
Nueva Chicago
21 Sept
Nueva Chicago
1 : 1
Patronato
12 Sept
Colegiales
1 : 0
Nueva Chicago
07 Sept
Nueva Chicago
1 : 0
Quilmes
29 Aug
Midland
2 : 0
Nueva Chicago
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ferro 31 18 7 6 36:25 61
2 Deportivo Moron 31 16 7 8 49:31 55
3 Godoy Cruz 31 15 8 8 40:28 53
4 Deportivo Madryn 31 13 11 7 44:28 50
5 Colon Santa Fe 31 13 10 8 38:25 49
6 Almirante Brown 31 12 10 9 23:18 46
7 CA Estudiantes 31 12 9 10 29:26 45
8 Ciudad Bolivar 31 10 12 9 26:28 42
9 Los Andes 31 9 13 9 24:21 40
10 Chaco For Ever 31 9 9 13 28:31 36
11 Defensores de Belgrano 31 8 12 11 23:27 36
12 Racing Cordoba 31 9 9 13 28:38 36
13 San Telmo 31 8 10 13 25:34 34
14 All Boys 31 6 15 10 17:26 33
15 Central Norte 31 6 14 11 19:28 32
16 CA Mitre 31 6 14 11 27:39 32
17 San Miguel 31 6 13 12 25:36 31
18 Acassuso 31 7 8 16 22:34 29
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tristan Suarez 31 15 12 4 32:15 57
2 Gimnasia Jujuy 31 15 9 7 47:38 54
3 Temperley 31 14 11 6 36:25 53
4 Atletico Atlanta 31 16 4 11 35:28 52
5 Gimnasia y Tiro 31 13 9 9 32:27 48
6 Midland 31 13 8 10 34:26 47
7 San Martin S.J. 31 12 9 10 33:30 45
8 Deportivo Maipu 31 12 8 11 38:31 44
9 Colegiales 31 12 7 12 31:31 43
10 Atl. Rafaela 31 11 9 11 25:27 42
11 San Martin T. 31 9 13 9 34:32 40
12 Quilmes 31 10 8 13 30:27 38
13 Nueva Chicago 31 9 9 13 23:29 36
14 Agropecuario 31 9 9 13 26:35 36
15 Almagro 31 9 8 14 26:37 35
16 Patronato 31 6 16 9 27:31 34
17 Chacarita Juniors 31 8 6 17 23:33 30
18 Club Atletico Guemes 31 5 8 18 23:53 23
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)