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Atlanta United vs Los Angeles Galaxy

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MLS Mercedes-Benz Stadium
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AI Match Summary

Atlanta United play Los Angeles Galaxy in the MLS. It looks like a close match. Recently, Atlanta United averaged 1.21 goals scored and 1.59 conceded. Los Angeles Galaxy averaged 1.64 goals scored and 1.43 conceded. In past meetings, Atlanta United won 1, Los Angeles Galaxy won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 9, 2026 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.38 for Atlanta United and 1.56 for Los Angeles Galaxy. This points to a Los Angeles Galaxy double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Atlanta United
23%
Draws
46%
Los Angeles Galaxy
Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Los Angeles Galaxy

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Atlanta United picked up more points recently compared to Los Angeles Galaxy.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.38 vs 1.56 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 56%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 85%
Over 2.5 Goals 56%
Over 3.5 Goals 34%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 55%
Atlanta United Clean Sheet 15%
Los Angeles Galaxy Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 77%
Second Half Goal 81%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atlanta United Los Angeles Galaxy
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 8 11
Draws 6 8
Losses 15 9
Goals Scored 1.21 1.64
Goals Conceded 1.59 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 MLS
Atlanta United vs Los Angeles Galaxy
1:2
Aug 25, 2024 MLS
Los Angeles Galaxy vs Atlanta United
2:0
Jul 25, 2022 MLS
Los Angeles Galaxy vs Atlanta United
2:0
Jul 18, 2020 MLS
Los Angeles Galaxy vs Atlanta United
0:0
Aug 3, 2019 MLS
Atlanta United vs Los Angeles Galaxy
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atlanta United Compare

Top Goalscorer Fortune A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Los Angeles Galaxy Compare

Top Goalscorer Gabriel Pec
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atlanta United 31 / 100
Los Angeles Galaxy 43 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atlanta United Los Angeles Galaxy

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Los Angeles Galaxy or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +34.8%
4.35
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12%
2.00
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Atlanta United attacking → ← attacking Los Angeles Galaxy

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atlanta United scored in 62% of their last 29 games.

Los Angeles Galaxy let in goals in 71% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Atlanta United went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Los Angeles Galaxy lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

30 Points in last 5 41
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.50
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Vancouver Whitecaps14102234:1232
2San Jose Earthquakes15102334:1532
3Real Salt Lake1482426:1926
4FC Dallas1574430:2225
5Los Angeles FC1573524:1724
6Seattle Sounders1373317:1124
7Houston Dynamo1471619:2322
8Minnesota United1564518:2222
9Los Angeles Galaxy1555522:2220
10San Diego FC1545630:2717
11Colorado Rapids1551925:2416
12St. Louis City1444616:2016
13Portland Timbers1442822:2814
14Austin FC1535719:3114
15Sporting Kansas City1432914:3611
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Nashville SC14103131:1133
2Inter Miami1594239:2831
3Chicago Fire1482427:1626
4New England Revolution1481522:1825
5New York Red Bulls1564525:3222
6Charlotte FC1563624:2321
7FC Cincinnati1555536:3720
8New York City1554625:2119
9DC United1546521:2518
10Columbus Crew1544721:2316
11CF Montreal1442822:3114
12Orlando City1542923:4414
13Toronto FC1435622:2914
14Atlanta United1432914:2311
15Philadelphia Union15141018:307