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Atlante vs Monterrey Prediction & H2H Stats

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX Estadio Banorte, Mexico City
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Puente L.
Assist: Portales W.
16'
Carrera J. N.
18' Event
Cuypers H.
Assist: Torres O.

AI Match Summary

The Liga MX game between Atlante and Monterrey finished 4-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Atlante.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Atlante
35%
Draws
35%
Monterrey
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Monterrey carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Atlante Clean Sheet 10%
Monterrey Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atlante Monterrey
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 9 12
Draws 12 6
Losses 9 14
Goals Scored 1.4 1.53
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.56
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 26, 2026 Liga MX
Atlante vs Monterrey
4:2
Jul 4, 2026 Club Friendly
Atlante vs Monterrey
1:1
Mar 30, 2014 Liga MX
Monterrey vs Atlante
3:2
Oct 6, 2013 Liga MX
Atlante vs Monterrey
2:1
Feb 4, 2013 Liga MX
Atlante vs Monterrey
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atlante Compare

Top Goalscorer Puente L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Calzadilla L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Monterrey Compare

Top Goalscorer Cuypers H.
1 Goals
Assists Leader de la Rosa R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atlante 29 / 100
Monterrey 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atlante Monterrey

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Atlante Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 7:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atlante scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Monterrey conceded in 81% of 32 recent games.

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Atlante stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Atlante VS Monterrey
0.5 Goals Scored 2.13
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Atlante

(Home)
26 Sept
Atlante
4 : 2
Monterrey
19 Sept
Puebla
1 : 1
Atlante
12 Sept
Atlante
0 : 3
Pachuca
06 Sept
Atlas
1 : 1
Atlante
29 Aug
Atlante
1 : 1
Club Leon
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Monterrey

(Away)
26 Sept
Atlante
4 : 2
Monterrey
20 Sept
Monterrey
1 : 0
Cruz Azul
13 Sept
Monterrey
0 : 0
Tigres UANL
07 Sept
Toluca
2 : 0
Monterrey
03 Sept
Club America
2 : 3
Monterrey
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Toluca 10 6 2 2 23:12 20
2 Club America 9 6 2 1 21:10 20
3 Guadalajara Chivas 10 5 3 2 17:10 18
4 Queretaro 9 5 2 2 13:8 17
5 Club Leon 10 5 2 3 14:11 17
6 Atlas 10 5 2 3 16:17 17
7 Cruz Azul 10 5 1 4 19:18 16
8 Club Tijuana 9 4 2 3 14:13 14
9 Puebla 10 4 2 4 11:12 14
10 Monterrey 9 4 1 4 16:14 13
11 Pachuca 10 3 3 4 15:11 12
12 UNAM Pumas 10 3 3 4 14:16 12
13 Atletico San Luis 10 3 3 4 14:18 12
14 Atlante 10 2 5 3 12:15 11
15 Tigres UANL 10 2 4 4 10:13 10
16 Santos Laguna 10 3 1 6 10:15 10
17 Necaxa 10 2 2 6 12:20 8
18 Juarez 10 1 0 9 7:25 3
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs)