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Atlante vs Tapatio

Mexico Mexico

Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 Estadio Agustín "Coruco" Díaz
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Atlante play Tapatio in the Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Atlante averaged 1.73 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. Tapatio averaged 1.63 goals scored and 1.63 conceded. In past meetings, Atlante won 1, Tapatio won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on Feb 7, 2026 ended 1:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.56 for Atlante and 1.38 for Tapatio. This points to a Atlante double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Atlante
31%
Draws
29%
Tapatio
Draw rate projection: 31% Favored: Atlante

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence
  • Atlante picked up more points recently compared to Tapatio.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.56 vs 1.38 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 58%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 86%
Over 2.5 Goals 58%
Over 3.5 Goals 35%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 62%
Atlante Clean Sheet 17%
Tapatio Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 77%
Second Half Goal 82%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atlante Tapatio
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 9
Draws 10 6
Losses 8 15
Goals Scored 1.73 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 7, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Atlante vs Tapatio
1:3
Aug 29, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Tapatio vs Atlante
3:0
Mar 20, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Tapatio vs Atlante
1:1
Oct 5, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Atlante vs Tapatio
1:1
May 5, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Atlante vs Tapatio
5:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atlante Compare

Top Goalscorer Puente L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Tapatio Compare

Top Goalscorer Parra R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Moragrega V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atlante 39 / 100
Tapatio 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atlante Tapatio

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Atlante or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +25.2%
3.13
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.4%
1.92
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Atlante attacking → ← attacking Tapatio

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atlante scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Tapatio let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Atlante went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Tapatio lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

46 Points in last 5 33
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Tepatitlan de Morelos1475221:1026
2Cancun1474324:1725
3Club Atletico Morelia1472518:1223
4Atletico La Paz1457222:1222
5Jaiba Brava1463515:1521
6Zacatecas Mineros1463519:2021
7Tapatio1462628:2420
8Atlante1455421:1720
9Irapuato1462627:2420
10Tlaxcala1455416:1720
11Venados FC1444625:2516
12Alebrijes de Oaxaca1444620:2916
13Dorados de Sinaloa1434717:2813
14Correcaminos1433814:2712
15Leones Negros1425715:2511