Sport Picks
Atlante vs Tepatitlan de Morelos
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 Estadio Agustín "Coruco" Díaz 
AI Match Summary
Atlante play Tepatitlan de Morelos in the Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Atlante averaged 1.75 goals scored and 1.04 conceded. Tepatitlan de Morelos averaged 1.27 goals scored and 0.97 conceded. In past meetings, Atlante won 1, Tepatitlan de Morelos won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on Apr 26, 2026 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.13 for Atlante and 1.50 for Tepatitlan de Morelos. This points to a Atlante double chance or over markets.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- Atlante picked up more points recently compared to Tepatitlan de Morelos.
- Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 1.50 xG).
- Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Atlante | Tepatitlan de Morelos |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 30 |
| Wins | 11 | 11 |
| Draws | 10 | 10 |
| Losses | 7 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.75 | 1.27 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.04 | 0.97 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.88 | 0.88 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Atlante Compare
Tepatitlan de Morelos Compare
Sokapicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Value Bet Detector (+EV)
Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds
Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations
Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries
Sokapicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Atlante scored in 82% of their last 28 games.
Tepatitlan de Morelos let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.
Games between these two average 1.80 goals.
Atlante went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Tepatitlan de Morelos lost 1 of their last 5 games.
Interactive Team Comparison Slider
Side-by-side comparison of team metrics