Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Atlas vs Cruz Azul

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX 2025/2026 Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara
Our Tip

Match Events

36'
Campos O.
41'
Rodarte J.
43'
Piovi G.

AI Match Summary

Cruz Azul in this Liga MX 2025/2026 tie, finishing 2-3. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Atlas
33%
Draws
40%
Cruz Azul
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Cruz Azul

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Cruz Azul have won more games recently than Atlas.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Cruz Azul taking it.
  • Cruz Azul arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Cruz Azul, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%
Atlas Clean Sheet 11%
Cruz Azul Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atlas Cruz Azul
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 9 16
Draws 6 10
Losses 13 3
Goals Scored 1 2.13
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Liga MX
Cruz Azul vs Atlas
1:0
May 3, 2026 Liga MX
Atlas vs Cruz Azul
2:3
Jan 14, 2026 Liga MX
Cruz Azul vs Atlas
2:0
Jul 20, 2025 Liga MX
Atlas vs Cruz Azul
3:3
Jan 12, 2025 Liga MX
Cruz Azul vs Atlas
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atlas Compare

Top Goalscorer Gonzalez A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Cruz Azul Compare

Top Goalscorer Rotondi C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ebere C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atlas 27 / 100
Cruz Azul 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atlas Cruz Azul

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAZ Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Atlas's goal record stands at 64% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Cruz Azul let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

Atlas went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Atlas VS Cruz Azul
1 Goals Scored 2.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
50% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Atlas

(Home)
04 Aug
Columbus Crew
3 : 1
Atlas
02 Aug
Atlas
0 : 2
Monterrey
26 Jul
Santos Laguna
0 : 1
Atlas
18 Jul
Club Leon
2 : 3
Atlas
10 Jul
Atlas
3 : 4
Puebla
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Cruz Azul

(Away)
02 Aug
Cruz Azul
2 : 3
Atlante
26 Jul
Toluca
1 : 3
Cruz Azul
22 Jul
Cruz Azul
2 : 1
Puebla
18 Jul
Atletico San Luis
2 : 3
Cruz Azul
05 Jul
Club Atletico Morelia
3 : 3
Cruz Azul
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
UNAM Pumas 6
Club America 6
Pachuca 3
Toluca 0
Guadalajara Chivas 3
Tigres UANL 3
Cruz Azul 4
Atlas 2
Semi-finals
UNAM Pumas 1
Pachuca 1
Guadalajara Chivas 3
Cruz Azul 4
Final
UNAM Pumas 1
Cruz Azul 2