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Atlas vs Cruz Azul Prediction & H2H Stats

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX 2025/2026 Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara
Our Tip

Match Events

36'
Campos O.
41'
Rodarte J.
43'
Piovi G.

AI Match Summary

Cruz Azul in this Liga MX 2025/2026 tie, finishing 2-3. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Atlas
35%
Draws
32%
Cruz Azul
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

32% / Low Confidence
  • Cruz Azul have won more games recently than Atlas.
  • 32% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Cruz Azul arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Cruz Azul, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Atlas Clean Sheet 14%
Cruz Azul Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atlas Cruz Azul
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 9 13
Draws 7 9
Losses 13 8
Goals Scored 1.07 1.6
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 23, 2026 Liga MX
Cruz Azul vs Atlas
0:2
May 10, 2026 Liga MX
Cruz Azul vs Atlas
1:0
May 3, 2026 Liga MX
Atlas vs Cruz Azul
2:3
Jan 14, 2026 Liga MX
Cruz Azul vs Atlas
2:0
Jul 20, 2025 Liga MX
Atlas vs Cruz Azul
3:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atlas Compare

Top Goalscorer Gonzalez A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Cruz Azul Compare

Top Goalscorer Rotondi C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ebere C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atlas 35 / 100
Cruz Azul 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atlas Cruz Azul

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cruz Azul Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cruz Azul let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Atlas scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

Atlas went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Atlas VS Cruz Azul
1.38 Goals Scored 1.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.63
100% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Atlas

(Home)
26 Sept
Club Tijuana
2 : 3
Atlas
19 Sept
Atlas
1 : 1
UNAM Pumas
12 Sept
Toluca
5 : 2
Atlas
06 Sept
Atlas
1 : 1
Atlante
29 Aug
Atlas
1 : 3
Queretaro
Page 1 of 6

Cruz Azul

(Away)
02 Oct
Club America
0 : 0
Cruz Azul
26 Sept
Cruz Azul
3 : 3
Toluca
20 Sept
Monterrey
1 : 0
Cruz Azul
17 Sept
Inter Miami
2 : 0
Cruz Azul
13 Sept
Cruz Azul
4 : 3
Club America
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
UNAM Pumas 6
Club America 6
Pachuca 3
Toluca 0
Guadalajara Chivas 3
Tigres UANL 3
Cruz Azul 4
Atlas 2
Semi-finals
UNAM Pumas 1
Pachuca 1
Guadalajara Chivas 3
Cruz Azul 4
Final
UNAM Pumas 1
Cruz Azul 2