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Atlas vs Tigres UANL - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Capasso M.
Assist: Gonzalez A.
21' Event
Brunetta J.
Assist: Aguirre R.
22'
Rios De Alba V. H.

AI Match Summary

The Liga MX game between Atlas and Tigres UANL finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Atlas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%
Atlas
35%
Draws
40%
Tigres UANL
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Tigres UANL

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Tigres UANL come out ahead of Atlas on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Atlas Clean Sheet 18%
Tigres UANL Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atlas Tigres UANL
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 10 14
Draws 7 8
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 1.14 1.45
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.06
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2026 Liga MX
Atlas vs Tigres UANL
2:1
Apr 23, 2026 Liga MX
Atlas vs Tigres UANL
0:0
Sep 25, 2025 Liga MX
Tigres UANL vs Atlas
2:0
Feb 9, 2025 Liga MX
Tigres UANL vs Atlas
2:1
Jul 13, 2024 Liga MX
Atlas vs Tigres UANL
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atlas Compare

Top Goalscorer Capasso M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Esteves L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Tigres UANL Compare

Top Goalscorer Brunetta J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atlas 32 / 100
Tigres UANL 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atlas Tigres UANL

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atlas scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

Tigres UANL has conceded goals in 65% of their last 31 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Atlas remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Atlas VS Tigres UANL
1.75 Goals Scored 0.88
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.75
100% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Atlas

(Home)
26 Sept
Club Tijuana
2 : 3
Atlas
19 Sept
Atlas
1 : 1
UNAM Pumas
12 Sept
Toluca
5 : 2
Atlas
06 Sept
Atlas
1 : 1
Atlante
29 Aug
Atlas
1 : 3
Queretaro
Page 1 of 6

Tigres UANL

(Away)
10 Oct
Tigres UANL
3 : 2
Toluca
27 Sept
Tigres UANL
1 : 0
Puebla
19 Sept
Juarez
2 : 0
Tigres UANL
13 Sept
Monterrey
0 : 0
Tigres UANL
06 Sept
Tigres UANL
1 : 1
Necaxa
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Club America 9 6 2 1 21:10 20
2 Toluca 11 6 2 3 25:15 20
3 Queretaro 10 6 2 2 15:8 20
4 Guadalajara Chivas 10 5 3 2 17:10 18
5 Club Leon 11 5 3 3 15:12 18
6 Atlas 10 5 2 3 16:17 17
7 Cruz Azul 10 5 1 4 19:18 16
8 Club Tijuana 10 4 3 3 15:14 15
9 Puebla 11 4 3 4 12:13 15
10 Monterrey 9 4 1 4 16:14 13
11 Tigres UANL 11 3 4 4 13:15 13
12 Pachuca 10 3 3 4 15:11 12
13 UNAM Pumas 10 3 3 4 14:16 12
14 Atletico San Luis 10 3 3 4 14:18 12
15 Atlante 11 2 5 4 12:17 11
16 Santos Laguna 10 3 1 6 10:15 10
17 Necaxa 10 2 2 6 12:20 8
18 Juarez 11 1 1 9 8:26 4
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs)