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Atletico Ascoli vs AS Sora

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

48' Event
Mazzarani F.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 game between Atletico Ascoli and AS Sora finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Atletico Ascoli.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Atletico Ascoli
30%
Draws
54%
AS Sora
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: AS Sora

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Atletico Ascoli come out ahead of AS Sora on wins alone.
  • Model gives AS Sora a 54% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Atletico Ascoli Clean Sheet 24%
AS Sora Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atletico Ascoli AS Sora
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 8
Draws 12 9
Losses 6 12
Goals Scored 1.41 1.17
Goals Conceded 1 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 2, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Atletico Ascoli vs AS Sora
1:0
Nov 23, 2025 Serie D - Group F
AS Sora vs Atletico Ascoli
0:4
May 4, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Atletico Ascoli vs AS Sora
0:2
Dec 22, 2024 Serie D - Group F
AS Sora vs Atletico Ascoli
2:0
Mar 10, 2024 Serie D - Group F
Atletico Ascoli vs AS Sora
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atletico Ascoli Compare

Top Goalscorer Mazzarani F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

AS Sora Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atletico Ascoli 29 / 100
AS Sora 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atletico Ascoli AS Sora

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AS Sora Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atletico Ascoli found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).

AS Sora let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Atletico Ascoli has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Atletico Ascoli VS AS Sora
1 Goals Scored 0.88
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Atletico Ascoli

(Home)
06 Sept
Angelana
2 : 0
Atletico Ascoli
08 Aug
Pineto
1 : 1
Atletico Ascoli
10 May
Teramo
2 : 1
Atletico Ascoli
03 May
Atletico Ascoli
1 : 1
Teramo
26 Apr
Sammaurese
2 : 0
Atletico Ascoli
Page 1 of 6

AS Sora

(Away)
03 May
Castelfidardo
0 : 2
AS Sora
26 Apr
AS Sora
2 : 1
Unipomezia
19 Apr
Recanatese
2 : 0
AS Sora
12 Apr
AS Sora
2 : 2
San Marino Calcio
02 Apr
Atletico Ascoli
1 : 0
AS Sora
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ostiamare 34 24 7 3 65:25 79
2 Ancona 34 23 7 4 59:22 76
3 Teramo 34 21 11 2 65:29 74
4 Atletico Ascoli 34 14 13 7 55:35 55
5 Notaresco Calcio 34 13 12 9 43:31 51
6 Aquila Calcio 34 14 9 11 53:44 51
7 Giulianova 34 11 16 7 40:31 49
8 Vigor Senigallia 34 12 13 9 45:40 49
9 Fossombrone 34 11 11 12 28:34 44
10 Unipomezia 34 10 12 12 43:42 42
11 Termoli 34 8 15 11 27:30 39
12 Maceratese 34 11 5 18 43:49 38
13 AS Sora 34 9 11 14 40:50 38
14 Recanatese 34 8 8 18 39:57 32
15 San Marino Calcio 34 8 7 19 33:61 31
16 Calcio Chieti 34 8 11 15 31:55 24
17 Castelfidardo 34 6 5 23 30:65 23
18 Sammaurese 34 5 7 22 30:69 20
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Out)