Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Atletico Ascoli vs Fossombrone - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F
Our Tip

Match Events

85' Event
Giometti C.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group F game between Atletico Ascoli and Fossombrone finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Fossombrone.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Atletico Ascoli
20%
Draws
40%
Fossombrone
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Atletico Ascoli come out ahead of Fossombrone on wins alone.
  • Atletico Ascoli are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group F form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Atletico Ascoli Clean Sheet 20%
Fossombrone Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atletico Ascoli Fossombrone
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 11 9
Draws 11 8
Losses 7 11
Goals Scored 1.34 0.79
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.18
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 4, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Atletico Ascoli vs Fossombrone
0:1
Apr 19, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Atletico Ascoli vs Fossombrone
1:1
Dec 7, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Fossombrone vs Atletico Ascoli
0:0
Feb 16, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Atletico Ascoli vs Fossombrone
1:1
Oct 20, 2024 Serie D - Group F
Fossombrone vs Atletico Ascoli
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atletico Ascoli Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Fossombrone Compare

Top Goalscorer Giometti C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atletico Ascoli 42 / 100
Fossombrone 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atletico Ascoli Fossombrone

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atletico Ascoli scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Fossombrone let in goals in 61% of their last 28 matches.

Recent resilience: Atletico Ascoli stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

H2H data points to 1.20 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Atletico Ascoli VS Fossombrone
1 Goals Scored 0.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Atletico Ascoli

(Home)
04 Oct
Atletico Ascoli
0 : 1
Fossombrone
27 Sept
Giulianova
4 : 2
Atletico Ascoli
20 Sept
Atletico Ascoli
1 : 0
Sporting Trestina
16 Sept
Aquila Calcio
0 : 0
Atletico Ascoli
13 Sept
Atletico Ascoli
2 : 1
Maceratese
Page 1 of 6

Fossombrone

(Away)
07 Oct
Ancona
2 : 1
Fossombrone
04 Oct
Atletico Ascoli
0 : 1
Fossombrone
27 Sept
Vigor Senigallia
0 : 0
Fossombrone
20 Sept
Fossombrone
2 : 4
Lanciano FC
16 Sept
Sporting Trestina
0 : 1
Fossombrone
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Aquila Calcio 6 4 2 0 12:2 14
2 Teramo 6 4 1 1 17:11 13
3 Vigor Senigallia 6 4 1 1 14:10 13
4 Foligno 6 4 1 1 7:6 13
5 Ancona 6 3 2 1 8:5 11
6 Notaresco Calcio 7 3 2 2 8:7 11
7 Fossombrone 6 3 1 2 6:9 10
8 Montecchio Gallo 6 2 2 2 5:5 8
9 Santegidiese 6 2 2 2 6:7 8
10 Giulianova 6 2 1 3 10:9 7
11 Lanciano FC 6 2 1 3 10:9 7
12 Termoli 6 2 1 3 4:5 7
13 Maceratese 6 2 1 3 7:9 7
14 Atletico Ascoli 6 2 1 3 6:8 7
15 Recanatese 7 1 3 3 9:11 6
16 Angelana 6 1 1 4 4:8 4
17 Sporting Trestina 6 1 1 4 4:9 4
18 Pietralunga 6 0 2 4 2:9 2
Promotion - Serie D - Group F (Play Offs)