Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Atletico Ascoli vs Maceratese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Minicucci M.
68' Event
Baumwollspinner I.
90' Event
Vechiarello A.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group F game between Atletico Ascoli and Maceratese finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Atletico Ascoli.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Atletico Ascoli
20%
Draws
29%
Maceratese
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Atletico Ascoli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Atletico Ascoli carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Atletico Ascoli taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Atletico Ascoli here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Atletico Ascoli Clean Sheet 68%
Maceratese Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atletico Ascoli Maceratese
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 12 9
Draws 11 5
Losses 7 15
Goals Scored 1.47 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Atletico Ascoli vs Maceratese
2:1
Mar 22, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Atletico Ascoli vs Maceratese
2:0
Nov 9, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Maceratese vs Atletico Ascoli
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atletico Ascoli Compare

Top Goalscorer Minicucci M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Vechiarello A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Maceratese Compare

Top Goalscorer Baumwollspinner I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atletico Ascoli 77 / 100
Maceratese 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atletico Ascoli Maceratese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Atletico Ascoli Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atletico Ascoli found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (30 games).

Maceratese's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Atletico Ascoli remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Atletico Ascoli VS Maceratese
1.13 Goals Scored 0.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Atletico Ascoli

(Home)
27 Sept
Giulianova
4 : 2
Atletico Ascoli
20 Sept
Atletico Ascoli
1 : 0
Sporting Trestina
16 Sept
Aquila Calcio
0 : 0
Atletico Ascoli
13 Sept
Atletico Ascoli
2 : 1
Maceratese
06 Sept
Angelana
2 : 1
Atletico Ascoli
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Maceratese

(Away)
27 Sept
Maceratese
1 : 1
Santegidiese
20 Sept
Pietralunga
0 : 2
Maceratese
16 Sept
Maceratese
0 : 1
Ancona
13 Sept
Atletico Ascoli
2 : 1
Maceratese
06 Sept
Maceratese
0 : 3
Teramo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vigor Senigallia 5 4 1 0 10:4 13
2 Aquila Calcio 5 3 2 0 9:2 11
3 Teramo 5 3 1 1 11:7 10
4 Foligno 5 3 1 1 6:6 10
5 Ancona 5 2 2 1 6:5 8
6 Santegidiese 5 2 2 1 5:4 8
7 Montecchio Gallo 5 2 2 1 5:4 8
8 Lanciano FC 5 2 1 2 10:7 7
9 Atletico Ascoli 5 2 1 2 6:7 7
10 Fossombrone 5 2 1 2 5:9 7
11 Recanatese 5 1 3 1 6:6 6
12 Notaresco Calcio 5 1 2 2 5:6 5
13 Giulianova 5 1 1 3 7:8 4
14 Maceratese 5 1 1 3 4:7 4
15 Sporting Trestina 5 1 1 3 4:7 4
16 Angelana 5 1 1 3 4:7 4
17 Termoli 5 1 1 3 2:5 4
18 Pietralunga 5 0 2 3 2:6 2
Promotion - Serie D - Group F (Play Offs)