Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Atletico Ascoli vs Sammaurese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Maio F.
31' Event
Sardo M.
74' Event
Nisi F.

AI Match Summary

Atletico Ascoli in this Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Atletico Ascoli.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Atletico Ascoli
35%
Draws
37%
Sammaurese
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Sammaurese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

28% / Low Confidence
  • Atletico Ascoli have won more games recently than Sammaurese.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Atletico Ascoli Clean Sheet 68%
Sammaurese Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atletico Ascoli Sammaurese
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 4
Draws 12 7
Losses 6 19
Goals Scored 1.43 0.83
Goals Conceded 0.93 2.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Sammaurese vs Atletico Ascoli
2:0
Dec 14, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Atletico Ascoli vs Sammaurese
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atletico Ascoli Compare

Top Goalscorer Maio F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sardo M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Sammaurese Compare

Top Goalscorer Nisi F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bartolini D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atletico Ascoli 41 / 100
Sammaurese 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atletico Ascoli Sammaurese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ATL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Sammaurese conceded in 83% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

Atletico Ascoli's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Atletico Ascoli has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Atletico Ascoli VS Sammaurese
1.25 Goals Scored 0.63
1 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Atletico Ascoli

(Home)
08 Aug
Pineto
1 : 1
Atletico Ascoli
10 May
Teramo
2 : 1
Atletico Ascoli
03 May
Atletico Ascoli
1 : 1
Teramo
26 Apr
Sammaurese
2 : 0
Atletico Ascoli
19 Apr
Atletico Ascoli
1 : 1
Fossombrone
Page 1 of 6

Sammaurese

(Away)
03 May
San Marino Calcio
1 : 0
Sammaurese
26 Apr
Sammaurese
2 : 0
Atletico Ascoli
19 Apr
Ancona
3 : 0
Sammaurese
15 Apr
Termoli
1 : 0
Sammaurese
12 Apr
Sammaurese
0 : 0
Aquila Calcio
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ostiamare 34 24 7 3 65:25 79
2 Ancona 34 23 7 4 59:22 76
3 Teramo 34 21 11 2 65:29 74
4 Atletico Ascoli 34 14 13 7 55:35 55
5 Notaresco Calcio 34 13 12 9 43:31 51
6 Aquila Calcio 34 14 9 11 53:44 51
7 Giulianova 34 11 16 7 40:31 49
8 Vigor Senigallia 34 12 13 9 45:40 49
9 Fossombrone 34 11 11 12 28:34 44
10 Unipomezia 34 10 12 12 43:42 42
11 Termoli 34 8 15 11 27:30 39
12 Maceratese 34 11 5 18 43:49 38
13 AS Sora 34 9 11 14 40:50 38
14 Recanatese 34 8 8 18 39:57 32
15 San Marino Calcio 34 8 7 19 33:61 31
16 Calcio Chieti 34 8 11 15 31:55 24
17 Castelfidardo 34 6 5 23 30:65 23
18 Sammaurese 34 5 7 22 30:69 20
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Out)