Sport Picks

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Atletico CP vs Caldas SC

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Estádio da Tapadinha, Lisbon
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Nicolas Souza
Assist: Fernandes D.
46'
Sub
Lopes D. In: Vieira J.
Out: Lopes D.
46'
Sub
Pires Gomes J. R. In: Palmerio M.
Out: Pires Gomes J. R.

AI Match Summary

Atletico CP in this Liga 3 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Atletico CP.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Atletico CP
15%
Draws
31%
Caldas SC
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Atletico CP

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Atletico CP have won more games recently than Caldas SC.
  • Atletico CP are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Atletico CP here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Atletico CP Clean Sheet 68%
Caldas SC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atletico CP Caldas SC
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 14 10
Draws 5 4
Losses 12 16
Goals Scored 1.29 0.93
Goals Conceded 0.94 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Liga 3
Atletico CP vs Caldas SC
2:0
Mar 14, 2026 Liga 3
Caldas SC vs Atletico CP
0:1
Dec 7, 2025 Liga 3
Caldas SC vs Atletico CP
0:1
Aug 24, 2025 Liga 3
Atletico CP vs Caldas SC
2:0
Jan 19, 2025 Liga 3
Caldas SC vs Atletico CP
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atletico CP Compare

Top Goalscorer Nicolas Souza
1 Goals
Assists Leader Fernandes D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Caldas SC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atletico CP 95 / 100
Caldas SC 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atletico CP Caldas SC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Atletico CP Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atletico CP's goal record stands at 74% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Defensive concern: Caldas SC conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Solid form: Atletico CP remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Atletico CP VS Caldas SC
1.25 Goals Scored 1.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.63
50% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Atletico CP

(Home)
19 Sept
Atletico CP
4 : 1
Lagoa
13 Sept
CF Os Belenenses
1 : 0
Atletico CP
06 Sept
Atletico CP
3 : 1
Oliveirense
29 Aug
Montijo
0 : 4
Atletico CP
22 Aug
Covilha
0 : 3
Atletico CP
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Caldas SC

(Away)
13 Sept
Caldas SC
2 : 0
Vitoria Sernache
04 Sept
Santarem
0 : 1
Caldas SC
30 Aug
Caldas SC
1 : 3
Sintrense
23 Aug
Caldas SC
2 : 4
Louletano
16 Aug
Caldas SC
0 : 0
Lusitano GC
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