Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Atletico Gloriense vs Confianca

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Fabio. J.
45' Event
Gean
79' Event
Icaro

AI Match Summary

The Sergipano game between Atletico Gloriense and Confianca finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Atletico Gloriense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Atletico Gloriense
35%
Draws
19%
Confianca
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Atletico Gloriense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Atletico Gloriense carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Atletico Gloriense are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Sergipano form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 48%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 8.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 4%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Atletico Gloriense Clean Sheet 68%
Confianca Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atletico Gloriense Confianca
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 12 9
Draws 6 6
Losses 12 19
Goals Scored 1.5 0.88
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.15
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 0.71
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 24, 2026 Sergipano
Atletico Gloriense vs Confianca
2:1
Feb 22, 2024 Sergipano
Confianca vs Atletico Gloriense
4:0
Jan 21, 2023 Sergipano
Confianca vs Atletico Gloriense
2:1
Mar 19, 2022 Sergipano
Atletico Gloriense vs Confianca
0:0
Feb 7, 2022 Sergipano
Confianca vs Atletico Gloriense
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atletico Gloriense Compare

Top Goalscorer Fabio. J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gean
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Confianca Compare

Top Goalscorer Icaro
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.65
Avg xA / game 0.39

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atletico Gloriense 95 / 100
Confianca 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atletico Gloriense Confianca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Atletico Gloriense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Atletico Gloriense scored in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Confianca let in goals in 74% of their last 34 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Solid form: Atletico Gloriense remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Atletico Gloriense VS Confianca
1 Goals Scored 0.75
0.67 Goals Conceded 1.13
33% Over 1.5 63%
17% Over 2.5 38%
17% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Atletico Gloriense

(Home)
18 Aug
Falcon
1 : 0
Atletico Gloriense
13 Aug
Atletico Gloriense
0 : 0
Lagarto
08 Aug
Atletico Gloriense
0 : 1
Falcon
05 Aug
America de Propria
1 : 5
Atletico Gloriense
01 Aug
Guarany SE
1 : 1
Atletico Gloriense
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Confianca

(Away)
29 Aug
Ferroviaria
1 : 0
Confianca
22 Aug
Confianca
0 : 1
Anapolis
16 Aug
Confianca
1 : 1
Maringa FC
10 Aug
Paysandu PA
2 : 1
Confianca
25 Jul
Confianca
1 : 1
Itabaiana
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sergipe 9 6 2 1 13:6 20
2 Itabaiana 9 5 2 2 12:4 17
3 Lagarto 9 4 4 1 16:8 16
4 Confianca 9 4 3 2 10:6 15
5 Guarany SE 9 3 3 3 10:10 12
6 America de Propria 9 2 6 1 8:8 12
7 Falcon 9 3 2 4 8:10 11
8 Atletico Gloriense 9 3 1 5 14:13 10
9 Dorense 9 2 1 6 9:23 7
10 Desportiva Aracaju 9 0 2 7 5:17 2
Promotion - Sergipano (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sergipano (Play Offs)