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Atletico La Paz vs Jaiba Brava

Mexico Mexico

Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 Estadio Guaycura
Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
Torres E.
30' Event
Ferrer J.
31'
Illescas F.

AI Match Summary

The Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 game between Atletico La Paz and Jaiba Brava finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Jaiba Brava.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Atletico La Paz
30%
Draws
34%
Jaiba Brava
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Atletico La Paz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Atletico La Paz haven't matched Jaiba Brava's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Atletico La Paz's way, sitting at 36%.
  • Regular Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Jaiba Brava have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Atletico La Paz Clean Sheet 16%
Jaiba Brava Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atletico La Paz Jaiba Brava
Matches Played 31 35
Wins 9 18
Draws 14 8
Losses 8 9
Goals Scored 1.38 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.5 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Atletico La Paz vs Jaiba Brava
1:2
Apr 23, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Jaiba Brava vs Atletico La Paz
2:0
Mar 28, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Atletico La Paz vs Jaiba Brava
1:1
Oct 19, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Jaiba Brava vs Atletico La Paz
3:2
Feb 23, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Jaiba Brava vs Atletico La Paz
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atletico La Paz Compare

Top Goalscorer Ferrer J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Jaiba Brava Compare

Top Goalscorer Torres E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Razo L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atletico La Paz 36 / 100
Jaiba Brava 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atletico La Paz Jaiba Brava

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atletico La Paz scored in 84% of their last 31 games.

Jaiba Brava has conceded goals in 71% of their last 35 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Atletico La Paz went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Atletico La Paz VS Jaiba Brava
1.38 Goals Scored 1.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.63
100% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Tepatitlan de Morelos2
Atlante2
Club Atletico Morelia2
Zacatecas Mineros3
Cancun2
Tapatio1
Atletico La Paz1
Jaiba Brava4
Semi-finals
Tepatitlan de Morelos2
Zacatecas Mineros2
Cancun2
Jaiba Brava3
Final
Tepatitlan de Morelos1
Jaiba Brava0