Sport Picks
Atletico-MG vs Athletico-PR
Brazil
Serie A Betano MRV Arena, Belo Horizonte 
Match Events
6'
6'
Victor Hugo
19'
19'
Aguirre F.
46'
46'
Sub
Mendoza S. In: Julimar
Out: Mendoza S.
AI Match Summary
Atletico-MG in this Serie A Betano matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Atletico-MG.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
30%
39%
31%
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
65%
/ Medium Confidence
- Athletico-PR have won more games recently than Atletico-MG.
- Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Atletico-MG Clean Sheet 68%
Athletico-PR Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Atletico-MG | Athletico-PR |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 27 | 28 |
| Wins | 13 | 14 |
| Draws | 4 | 5 |
| Losses | 10 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.5 | 0.75 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.50 | 0.75 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 5, 2026 Serie A Betano
Atletico-MG vs Athletico-PR
2:1
Dec 8, 2024 Serie A Betano
Atletico-MG vs Athletico-PR
1:0
Nov 16, 2024 Serie A Betano
Athletico-PR vs Atletico-MG
1:0
Sep 2, 2023 Serie A Betano
Athletico-PR vs Atletico-MG
1:1
May 23, 2023 Copa Libertadores
Atletico-MG vs Athletico-PR
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Atletico-MG Compare
Top Goalscorer Victor Hugo
1 Goals Assists Leader Gustavo Scarpa
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63
Athletico-PR Compare
Top Goalscorer Julimar
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Atletico-MG 41 / 100
Athletico-PR 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Atletico-MG Athletico-PR
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick ATL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Athletico-PR has conceded goals in 79% of their last 28 outings.
These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.
Solid form: Atletico-MG remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Atletico-MG scored in 59% of their last 27 games.
Scoring Trends
Atletico-MG VS Athletico-PR
1.25 Goals Scored 1.25
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.75
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Atletico-MG
(Home) 26 Jul
Palmeiras
1 : 2 Atletico-MG
21 Jul
Atletico-MG
1 : 1 Bahia
31 May
Vasco
0 : 1 Atletico-MG
27 May
Atletico-MG
1 : 0 Academia Puerto Cabello
24 May
Corinthians
1 : 0 Atletico-MG
Page 1 of 6
21 Jul
Atletico-MG
1 : 1 Bahia
27 May
Atletico-MG
1 : 0 Academia Puerto Cabello
21 May
Atletico-MG
2 : 0 Cienciano
16 May
Atletico-MG
3 : 1 Mirassol
10 May
Atletico-MG
1 : 1 Botafogo RJ
Page 1 of 3
Athletico-PR
(Away) 25 Jul
Athletico-PR
2 : 0 Internacional
23 Jul
Sao Paulo
1 : 2 Athletico-PR
11 Jul
Bragantino
2 : 1 Athletico-PR
09 Jul
Boca Juniors
1 : 0 Athletico-PR
30 May
Athletico-PR
1 : 0 Mirassol
Page 1 of 6
23 Jul
Sao Paulo
1 : 2 Athletico-PR
11 Jul
Bragantino
2 : 1 Athletico-PR
09 Jul
Boca Juniors
1 : 0 Athletico-PR
24 May
Remo
1 : 2 Athletico-PR
14 May
Atletico GO
0 : 1 Athletico-PR
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 20 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 34:16 | 44 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 19 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 36:17 | 38 |
| 3 | Athletico-PR | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 28:19 | 36 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 20 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 30:25 | 33 |
| 5 | Bragantino | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 26:20 | 31 |
| 6 | Bahia | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 29:25 | 31 |
| 7 | Botafogo RJ | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 34:32 | 29 |
| 8 | Atletico-MG | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 25:25 | 28 |
| 9 | Corinthians | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 22:20 | 28 |
| 10 | Coritiba | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 25:27 | 27 |
| 11 | Cruzeiro | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 26:30 | 27 |
| 12 | Sao Paulo | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 25:23 | 26 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 22:27 | 26 |
| 14 | Santos | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 29:33 | 22 |
| 15 | Gremio | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 22:26 | 22 |
| 16 | Internacional | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 22:26 | 21 |
| 17 | Vasco | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 23:31 | 21 |
| 18 | Remo | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 23:32 | 21 |
| 19 | Mirassol | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 21:26 | 20 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-SC | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19:41 | 10 |
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana 2027 (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B 2027 (Main)
