Sport Picks
Atletico-MG vs Fluminense Prediction & H2H Stats
Brazil
Serie A Betano MRV Arena, Belo Horizonte 
Match Events
19'
19'
Franco A.
52'
52'
Otavio
61'
61'
Sub
Acosta L. In: Pereira H.
Out: Acosta L.
AI Match Summary
The Serie A Betano game between Atletico-MG and Fluminense finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Atletico-MG.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
37%
15%
48%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Fluminense
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
15%
/ Low Confidence
- Fluminense's 1.48 goals per match outpaces what Atletico-MG have produced (1.41).
- Model gives Atletico-MG a 36% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Atletico-MG Clean Sheet 20%
Fluminense Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Atletico-MG | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 31 |
| Wins | 13 | 13 |
| Draws | 10 | 12 |
| Losses | 6 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 1.41 | 1.48 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.1 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 12, 2026 Serie A Betano
Atletico-MG vs Fluminense
3:1
Mar 21, 2026 Serie A Betano
Fluminense vs Atletico-MG
1:0
Oct 4, 2025 Serie A Betano
Fluminense vs Atletico-MG
3:0
May 11, 2025 Serie A Betano
Atletico-MG vs Fluminense
3:2
Sep 25, 2024 Copa Libertadores
Atletico-MG vs Fluminense
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Atletico-MG Compare
Top Goalscorer Reinier
1 Goals Assists Leader Cuello T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6
Fluminense Compare
Top Goalscorer Castillo R.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Atletico-MG 36 / 100
Fluminense 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Atletico-MG Fluminense
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Atletico-MG's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
Fluminense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 31 matches.
Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.
Recent resilience: Atletico-MG stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Atletico-MG VS Fluminense
1.25 Goals Scored 1.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Atletico-MG
(Home) 19 Sept
Atletico-MG
1 : 1 Chapecoense-SC
16 Sept
Atletico-MG
5 : 2 Santos
12 Sept
Atletico-MG
3 : 1 Fluminense
09 Sept
Santos
2 : 0 Atletico-MG
05 Sept
Sao Paulo
2 : 0 Atletico-MG
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Atletico-MG
1 : 1 Chapecoense-SC
16 Sept
Atletico-MG
5 : 2 Santos
12 Sept
Atletico-MG
3 : 1 Fluminense
02 Sept
Atletico-MG
2 : 1 Cruzeiro
29 Aug
Atletico-MG
2 : 1 Vitoria
Page 1 of 3
Fluminense
(Away) 20 Sept
Corinthians
1 : 3 Fluminense
15 Sept
Platense
2 : 1 Fluminense
12 Sept
Atletico-MG
3 : 1 Fluminense
08 Sept
Fluminense
2 : 0 Platense
06 Sept
Fluminense
1 : 0 Vasco
Page 1 of 7
20 Sept
Corinthians
1 : 3 Fluminense
15 Sept
Platense
2 : 1 Fluminense
12 Sept
Atletico-MG
3 : 1 Fluminense
30 Aug
Athletico-PR
3 : 3 Fluminense
18 Aug
Ind. Rivadavia
1 : 2 Fluminense
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo RJ | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 55:23 | 60 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 47:21 | 57 |
| 3 | Athletico-PR | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 43:32 | 49 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 44:36 | 48 |
| 5 | Bahia | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 43:35 | 46 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 42:40 | 45 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 36:32 | 40 |
| 8 | Santos | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 41:40 | 38 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 37:43 | 38 |
| 10 | Bragantino | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 33:31 | 36 |
| 11 | Sao Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 32:30 | 36 |
| 12 | Botafogo RJ | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 41:45 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 28:42 | 33 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 29:32 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 33:42 | 32 |
| 16 | Vasco | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 34:41 | 31 |
| 17 | Gremio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 30:38 | 29 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 30:36 | 28 |
| 19 | Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 32:47 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-SC | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 29:53 | 18 |
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana 2027 (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B 2027 (Main)
