Sport Picks

Atletico-MG vs Gremio - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil

Copa do Brasil MRV Arena, Belo Horizonte

Gremio

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 2-0. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. Recent head-to-head results give a strong hint here. Atletico-MG have averaged 1.39 scored and 1 conceded recently, against Gremio's 1.36 scored and 1.36 conceded. Head-to-head, Atletico-MG have won 1 to Gremio's 4, with 0 draws. They last met on Nov 1, 2026, ending 2:0. Model xG sits at 1.20 vs 1.00, favoring Gremio. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: NG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%

Atletico-MG

15%

Draws

65%

Gremio

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Gremio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence

Atletico-MG carry the better recent record into this one.
65% — that's where the model lands on Gremio taking it.
Atletico-MG have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
Historical meetings favor Gremio, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Gremio have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 75%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%

Atletico-MG Clean Sheet 23%

Gremio Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Atletico-MG	Gremio
Matches Played	28	28
Wins	14	10
Draws	8	7
Losses	6	11
Goals Scored	1.39	1.36
Goals Conceded	1	1.36
Expected Goals (xG)	1.20	1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 1, 2026 Copa do Brasil

Gremio vs Atletico-MG

2:0

Aug 16, 2026 Serie A

Atletico-MG vs Gremio

3:0

Feb 26, 2026 Serie A

Gremio vs Atletico-MG

2:1

Aug 17, 2025 Serie A

Atletico-MG vs Gremio

1:3

Mar 29, 2025 Serie A

Gremio vs Atletico-MG

2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atletico-MG 13 / 100

Gremio 86 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Atletico-MG Gremio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gremio Win (2)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No

Correct Score 0:1

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atletico-MG found the back of the net in 61% of recent matches (28 games).

Gremio's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 28 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Atletico-MG stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Atletico-MG VS Gremio

1.5 Goals Scored 1.38

1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13

75% Over 1.5 75%

50% Over 2.5 25%

25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Atletico-MG

(Home)

01 Nov

Gremio

2 : 0

Atletico-MG

29 Oct

Atletico-MG

0 : 1

Cruzeiro

26 Oct

Flamengo RJ

3 : 2

Atletico-MG

21 Oct

Montevideo City

2 : 0

Atletico-MG

17 Oct

Atletico-MG

1 : 0

Coritiba

Page 1 of 6

Gremio

(Away)

01 Nov

Gremio

2 : 0

Atletico-MG

30 Oct

Gremio

2 : 0

Athletico-PR

26 Oct

Coritiba

0 : 1

Gremio

18 Oct

Gremio

2 : 4

Cruzeiro

11 Oct

Gremio

1 : 1

Internacional

Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Scroll horizontally to view stages →

1/256-finals

Sampaio Correa FE 1

Desportiva Ferroviaria 2

TBD -

Sport Recife -

Anapolis -

TBD -

Cianorte -

Rio Branco ES -

TBD -

Athletic Club -

Ypiranga FC -

TBD -

Ji-Parana 2

Pantanal 0

TBD -

Internacional -

Ivinhema 1

Independente AP 0

TBD -

Volta Redonda -

America RN -

TBD -

Gremio Atletico Sampaio -

Barra FC (Santa Catarina) -

TBD -

America MG -

TBD -

America de Propria 1

Tirol 2

TBD -

Corinthians -

Bragantino -

TBD -

Mirassol -

Gremio -

TBD -

Vasco da Gama AC 1

Velo Clube 2

TBD -

Vila Nova FC -

ASA -

TBD -

Operario MS -

Confianca -

TBD -

Tombense -

TBD -

Oratorio -

Botafogo RJ -

TBD -

Chapecoense-SC -

Boavista -

TBD -

Maringa FC -

Retro -

TBD -

Uberlandia -

Gama 2

Monte Roraima 0

TBD -

Goias -

Trem -

TBD -

Fluminense-PI -

TBD -

Cruzeiro -

Atletico-MG -

TBD -

Joinville -

TBD -

CSA -

Sao Bernardo -

TBD -

Alagoinhas -

Sao Luiz -

TBD -

Maranhao -

Ceara -

TBD -

Araguaina 0

Primavera EC 3

Sao Paulo -

TBD -

Tuna Luso -

TBD -

Tocantinopolis -

EC Juventude -

TBD -

Galvez 1

Guapore 2

Bare 0

Madureira 3

TBD -

ABC -

Aguia De Maraba -

TBD -

Independencia Futebol Clube -

Portuguesa -

TBD -

AE Altos -

Avai -

TBD -

Porto Vitoria -

Paysandu PA -

TBD -

Portuguesa RJ -

TBD -

Maracana -

TBD -

Vasco -

Capital FC -

TBD -

Manaus FC -

Londrina -

TBD -

SC Penedense -

Betim FC 1

Piaui 0

TBD -

Operario-PR -

Juazeirense -

TBD -

Capital -

TBD -

Fluminense -

Athletico-PR -

TBD -

Operario VG -

TBD -

Porto Velho -

Atletico GO -

TBD -

Primavera AC 2

Bragantino PA 1

Ponte Preta -

TBD -

SER Caxias do Sul -

TBD -

Guarany de Bage -

Flamengo RJ -

TBD -

Vitoria -

Palmeiras -

TBD -

Santa Catarina 2

IAPE 0

TBD -

Cuiaba -

Ceilandia -

TBD -

Jacuipense -

Mixto -

TBD -

Botafogo PB -

Novorizontino -

TBD -

Nacional-AM (Manaus) -

Castanhal -

TBD -

Guarani -

Nova Iguacu -

TBD -

Lagarto -

Manauara -

TBD -

Itabaiana -

Fortaleza -

TBD -

Maguary 1

Laguna RN 0

Santa Cruz -

TBD -

Sousa -

CRB -

TBD -

Porto-BA 2

Serra Branca 1

Imperatriz -

TBD -

Amazonas -

Figueirense -

TBD -

Azuriz -

Santos -

TBD -

Coritiba -

Bahia -

TBD -

Remo -

1/128-finals

Desportiva Ferroviaria 0

Sport Recife 1

Anapolis 3

Cianorte 1

Rio Branco ES 1

Athletic Club 2

Ypiranga FC 2

Ji-Parana 0

TBD -

Internacional -

Ivinhema 2

Volta Redonda 4

America RN 3

Gremio Atletico Sampaio 0

Barra FC (Santa Catarina) -

TBD -

America MG 2

Tirol 1

TBD -

Corinthians -

Bragantino -

TBD -

Mirassol -

Gremio -

TBD -

Velo Clube 0

Vila Nova FC 1

ASA 1

Operario MS 2

Confianca -

TBD -

Tombense 2

Oratorio 1

Botafogo RJ -

TBD -

Chapecoense-SC -

Boavista 2

Maringa FC 3

Retro 1

Uberlandia 2

Gama 2

Goias 3

Trem 0

Fluminense-PI 1

TBD -

Cruzeiro -

Atletico-MG -

TBD -

Joinville 1

CSA 0

Sao Bernardo 2

Alagoinhas 0

Sao Luiz 0

Maranhao 1

Ceara 2

Primavera EC 1

Sao Paulo -

TBD -

Tuna Luso 4

Tocantinopolis 1

EC Juventude 5

Guapore 0

Madureira 1

ABC 0

Aguia De Maraba 2

Independencia Futebol Clube 0

Portuguesa 5

AE Altos 1

Avai 3

Porto Vitoria 0

Paysandu PA -

TBD -

Portuguesa RJ 1

Maracana 0

TBD -

Vasco -

Capital FC 1

Manaus FC 2

Londrina 1

SC Penedense 0

Betim FC 0

Operario-PR 2

Juazeirense 1

Capital 2

TBD -

Fluminense -

Athletico-PR -

TBD -

Operario VG 1

Porto Velho 2

Atletico GO 1

Primavera AC 0

Ponte Preta -

TBD -

SER Caxias do Sul 0

Guarany de Bage 1

Flamengo RJ -

TBD -

Vitoria -

Palmeiras -

TBD -

Santa Catarina 2

Cuiaba 1

Ceilandia 1

Jacuipense 2

Mixto 2

Botafogo PB 1

Novorizontino 4

Nacional-AM (Manaus) 0

Castanhal 2

Guarani 1

Nova Iguacu 2

Lagarto 1

Manauara 3

Itabaiana 1

Fortaleza 4

Maguary 3

Santa Cruz 0

Sousa 1

CRB 6

Porto-BA 0

Imperatriz 0

Amazonas 3

Figueirense 1

Azuriz 0

Santos -

TBD -

Coritiba -

Bahia -

TBD -

Remo -

1/64-finals

Sport Recife 2

Anapolis 1

Athletic Club 2

Ypiranga FC 0

TBD -

Internacional -

Volta Redonda 1

America RN 0

Barra FC (Santa Catarina) 1

America MG 0

TBD -

Corinthians -

Bragantino -

TBD -

Mirassol -

Gremio -

TBD -

Vila Nova FC 2

Operario MS 1

Confianca 2

Tombense 0

Botafogo RJ -

TBD -

Chapecoense-SC -

Maringa FC 3

Uberlandia 2

Goias 3

Fluminense-PI 0

TBD -

Cruzeiro -

Atletico-MG -

TBD -

Joinville 0

Sao Bernardo 1

Maranhao 0

Ceara 1

Sao Paulo -

TBD -

Tuna Luso 1

EC Juventude 2

Madureira 0

Aguia De Maraba 1

Portuguesa 2

Avai 1

Paysandu PA 3

Portuguesa RJ 1

TBD -

Vasco -

Manaus FC 0

Londrina 1

Operario-PR 2

Capital 0

TBD -

Fluminense -

Athletico-PR -

TBD -

Porto Velho 0

Atletico GO 1

Ponte Preta 1

Guarany de Bage 0

Flamengo RJ -

TBD -

Vitoria -

Palmeiras -

TBD -

Santa Catarina 0

Jacuipense 1

Mixto 0

Novorizontino 3

Castanhal 0

Nova Iguacu 4

Manauara 0

Fortaleza 1

Sousa 0

CRB 2

Amazonas 0

Figueirense 1

Santos -

TBD -

Coritiba -

Bahia -

TBD -

Remo -

1/32-finals

Sport Recife 1

Athletic Club 3

TBD -

Internacional -

Volta Redonda 0

Barra FC (Santa Catarina) 1

TBD -

Corinthians -

Bragantino -

TBD -

Mirassol -

Gremio -

TBD -

Vila Nova FC 0

Confianca 1

Botafogo RJ -

TBD -

Chapecoense-SC -

Maringa FC 0

Goias 1

TBD -

Cruzeiro -

Atletico-MG -

TBD -

Sao Bernardo 0

Ceara 1

Sao Paulo -

TBD -

EC Juventude 3

Aguia De Maraba 0

Portuguesa 2

Paysandu PA 3

TBD -

Vasco -

Londrina 0

Operario-PR 1

TBD -

Fluminense -

Athletico-PR -

TBD -

Atletico GO 1

Ponte Preta 0

Flamengo RJ -

TBD -

Vitoria -

Palmeiras -

TBD -

Jacuipense 1

Novorizontino 0

Nova Iguacu 0

Fortaleza 1

CRB 1

Figueirense 0

Santos -

TBD -

Coritiba -

Bahia -

TBD -

Remo -

1/16-finals

Athletic Club 3

Internacional 5

Barra FC (Santa Catarina) 0

Corinthians 2

Bragantino 2

Mirassol 3

Gremio 5

Confianca 0

Botafogo RJ 1

Chapecoense-SC 2

Goias 2

Cruzeiro 3

Atletico-MG 4

Ceara 3

Sao Paulo 2

EC Juventude 3

Paysandu PA 2

Vasco 4

Operario-PR 1

Fluminense 2

Athletico-PR 1

Atletico GO 0

Flamengo RJ 2

Vitoria 3

Palmeiras 7

Jacuipense 1

Fortaleza 2

CRB 1

Santos 2

Coritiba 0

Bahia 2

Remo 5

1/8-finals

Internacional 3

Corinthians 2

Mirassol 1

Gremio 2

Chapecoense-SC 0

Cruzeiro 2

Atletico-MG 1

EC Juventude 0

Vasco 3

Fluminense 1

Athletico-PR 2

Vitoria 4

Palmeiras 5

Fortaleza 3

Santos 1

Remo 0

Quarter-finals

Internacional 1

Gremio 3

Cruzeiro 2

Atletico-MG 3

Vasco 3

Vitoria 0

Palmeiras 3

Santos 0

Semi-finals

Gremio 2

Atletico-MG 0

Vasco 0

Palmeiras 1

Final

TBD -

Atletico-MG vs Gremio - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil

Atletico-MG

Gremio

AI Match Summary

Win Probability Meter

Model Confidence

Goal Probability Engine

Recent Team Form Analysis

H2H

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Attack & Defence Capability Index

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Scoring Trends

Recent Form & Match History

Atletico-MG

Gremio

Tournament Bracket & Draw

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