Sport Picks
Atletico-MG vs Santos - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
South America
Copa Sudamericana MRV Arena, Belo Horizonte 
Match Events
1'
1'
Bernard
Assist: Fred
20'
20'
Reinier
Assist: Fred
28'
28'
Lyanco
Own Goal
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 5-2. This leg finished 5-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
0%
20%
80%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Santos
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
80%
/ Very High Confidence
- Santos average 1.66 goals a game right now, well clear of Atletico-MG's 1.39.
- 80% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
- Historical meetings favor Atletico-MG, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Atletico-MG Clean Sheet 23%
Santos Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Atletico-MG | Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 29 |
| Wins | 15 | 15 |
| Draws | 9 | 8 |
| Losses | 7 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 1.39 | 1.66 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 1.14 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 11, 2026 Serie A
Atletico-MG vs Santos
2:1
Sep 16, 2026 Copa Sudamericana
Atletico-MG vs Santos
5:2
Sep 9, 2026 Copa Sudamericana
Santos vs Atletico-MG
2:0
Apr 11, 2026 Serie A
Santos vs Atletico-MG
1:0
Sep 14, 2025 Serie A
Atletico-MG vs Santos
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Atletico-MG Compare
Top Goalscorer Reinier
2 Goals Assists Leader Bernard
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6
Santos Compare
Top Goalscorer Gabriel Barbosa
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Atletico-MG 33 / 100
Santos 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Atletico-MG Santos
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Santos Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Santos's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 29 matches.
Games between these two average 3.00 goals.
Atletico-MG's goal record stands at 58% scoring rate across 31 recent games.
Away concern: Santos has suffered 2 losses in 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Atletico-MG VS Santos
1.5 Goals Scored 1.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Atletico-MG
(Home) 05 Nov
Botafogo RJ
1 : 0 Atletico-MG
01 Nov
Gremio
2 : 0 Atletico-MG
29 Oct
Atletico-MG
0 : 1 Cruzeiro
26 Oct
Flamengo RJ
3 : 2 Atletico-MG
21 Oct
Montevideo City
2 : 0 Atletico-MG
Page 1 of 7
29 Oct
Atletico-MG
0 : 1 Cruzeiro
17 Oct
Atletico-MG
1 : 0 Coritiba
14 Oct
Atletico-MG
3 : 0 Montevideo City
11 Oct
Atletico-MG
2 : 1 Santos
03 Oct
Atletico-MG
1 : 0 Bragantino
Page 1 of 4
Santos
(Away) 02 Nov
Bragantino
2 : 1 Santos
28 Oct
Santos
0 : 0 Palmeiras
25 Oct
Santos
1 : 1 Bahia
18 Oct
Fluminense
1 : 2 Santos
11 Oct
Atletico-MG
2 : 1 Santos
Page 1 of 6
02 Nov
Bragantino
2 : 1 Santos
18 Oct
Fluminense
1 : 2 Santos
11 Oct
Atletico-MG
2 : 1 Santos
02 Oct
Sao Paulo
1 : 2 Santos
19 Sept
Remo
1 : 2 Santos
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Sporting Cristal 0
Bragantino 1
TBD -
Atletico-MG -
Universidad Central 3
Santos 8
TBD -
Macara -
Club Nacional 2
Tigre 4
TBD -
Montevideo City -
Lanus 2
Cienciano 4
TBD -
Botafogo RJ -
Boca Juniors 2
O Higgins 1
TBD -
Recoleta -
Bolivar 4
Gremio 2
TBD -
Sao Paulo -
Santa Fe 5
Caracas 0
TBD -
River Plate -
Ind. Medellin 2
Vasco 3
TBD -
Olimpia Asuncion -
1/8-finals
Bragantino 2
Atletico-MG 3
Santos 2
Macara 1
Tigre 1
Montevideo City 3
Cienciano 6
Botafogo RJ 2
Boca Juniors 7
Recoleta 1
Bolivar 2
Sao Paulo 4
Santa Fe 2
River Plate 1
Vasco 4
Olimpia Asuncion 1
Quarter-finals
Atletico-MG 5
Santos 4
Montevideo City 3
Cienciano 2
Boca Juniors 2
Sao Paulo 1
Santa Fe 0
Vasco 2
Semi-finals
Atletico-MG 3
Montevideo City 2
Boca Juniors 3
Vasco 2
Final
Atletico-MG -
Boca Juniors -
