Sport Picks
Atletico-MG vs Santos
South America
Copa Sudamericana MRV Arena, Belo Horizonte 
Match Events
1'
1'
Bernard
Assist: Fred
20'
20'
Reinier
Assist: Fred
28'
28'
Lyanco
Own Goal
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 5-2. This leg finished 5-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
35%
15%
50%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Santos
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
50%
/ Medium Confidence
- Santos have won more games recently than Atletico-MG.
- Santos are the model's pick here, at 40%.
- Santos arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Atletico-MG, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Atletico-MG Clean Sheet 23%
Santos Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Atletico-MG | Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 27 | 28 |
| Wins | 13 | 14 |
| Draws | 9 | 9 |
| Losses | 5 | 5 |
| Goals Scored | 1.37 | 1.64 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.04 | 1.04 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 16, 2026 Copa Sudamericana
Atletico-MG vs Santos
5:2
Sep 9, 2026 Copa Sudamericana
Santos vs Atletico-MG
2:0
Apr 11, 2026 Serie A Betano
Santos vs Atletico-MG
1:0
Sep 14, 2025 Serie A Betano
Atletico-MG vs Santos
1:1
Apr 17, 2025 Serie A Betano
Santos vs Atletico-MG
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Atletico-MG Compare
Top Goalscorer Reinier
2 Goals Assists Leader Bernard
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6
Santos Compare
Top Goalscorer Gabriel Barbosa
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Atletico-MG 29 / 100
Santos 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Atletico-MG Santos
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Santos Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Atletico-MG's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 27 recent games.
Santos let in goals in 61% of their last 28 matches.
These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.
Solid form: Atletico-MG remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Atletico-MG VS Santos
1.25 Goals Scored 1.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Atletico-MG
(Home) 12 Sept
Atletico-MG
3 : 1 Fluminense
09 Sept
Santos
2 : 0 Atletico-MG
05 Sept
Sao Paulo
2 : 0 Atletico-MG
02 Sept
Atletico-MG
2 : 1 Cruzeiro
29 Aug
Atletico-MG
2 : 1 Vitoria
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Atletico-MG
3 : 1 Fluminense
02 Sept
Atletico-MG
2 : 1 Cruzeiro
29 Aug
Atletico-MG
2 : 1 Vitoria
19 Aug
Atletico-MG
2 : 2 Bragantino
16 Aug
Atletico-MG
3 : 0 Gremio
Page 1 of 3
Santos
(Away) 13 Sept
Santos
2 : 1 Cruzeiro
09 Sept
Santos
2 : 0 Atletico-MG
06 Sept
Internacional
2 : 3 Santos
03 Sept
Santos
0 : 0 Palmeiras
30 Aug
Corinthians
0 : 1 Santos
Page 1 of 6
06 Sept
Internacional
2 : 3 Santos
30 Aug
Corinthians
0 : 1 Santos
27 Aug
Palmeiras
3 : 0 Santos
20 Aug
Macara
0 : 0 Santos
16 Aug
Vasco
0 : 3 Santos
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Boca Juniors 2
O Higgins 1
TBD -
Recoleta -
Bolivar 4
Gremio 2
TBD -
Sao Paulo -
Santa Fe 5
Caracas 0
TBD -
River Plate -
Ind. Medellin 2
Vasco 3
TBD -
Olimpia Asuncion -
Sporting Cristal 0
Bragantino 1
TBD -
Atletico-MG -
Universidad Central 3
Santos 8
TBD -
Macara -
Club Nacional 2
Tigre 4
TBD -
Montevideo City -
Lanus 2
Cienciano 4
TBD -
Botafogo RJ -
1/8-finals
Boca Juniors 7
Recoleta 1
Bolivar 2
Sao Paulo 4
Santa Fe 2
River Plate 1
Vasco 4
Olimpia Asuncion 1
Bragantino 2
Atletico-MG 3
Santos 2
Macara 1
Tigre 1
Montevideo City 3
Cienciano 6
Botafogo RJ 2
Quarter-finals
Boca Juniors 2
Sao Paulo 1
Santa Fe 0
Vasco 2
Atletico-MG 5
Santos 4
Montevideo City 0
Cienciano 2
Semi-finals
Boca Juniors -
Vasco -
Atletico-MG -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -
