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Atletico-MG vs Santos Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Serie A Betano MRV Arena, Belo Horizonte
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
07:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Atletico-MG host Santos in the Serie A Betano. Little to choose between these two on current form. Recent numbers: Atletico-MG at 1.43 goals for, 1.1 against; Santos at 1.65 for, 1.1 against. Head-to-head, Atletico-MG have won 1 to Santos's 3, with 1 draws. They last met on Sep 16, 2026, ending 5:2. Model xG sits at 1.20 vs 1.00, favoring Santos. The model calls this a Draw — both sides look evenly matched.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Atletico-MG
15%
Draws
54%
Santos
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Santos

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Atletico-MG haven't matched Santos's recent run of results.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Atletico-MG taking it.
  • Regular Serie A Betano form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Atletico-MG Clean Sheet 20%
Santos Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atletico-MG Santos
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 14 16
Draws 10 9
Losses 6 6
Goals Scored 1.43 1.65
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 16, 2026 Copa Sudamericana
Atletico-MG vs Santos
5:2
Sep 9, 2026 Copa Sudamericana
Santos vs Atletico-MG
2:0
Apr 11, 2026 Serie A Betano
Santos vs Atletico-MG
1:0
Sep 14, 2025 Serie A Betano
Atletico-MG vs Santos
1:1
Apr 17, 2025 Serie A Betano
Santos vs Atletico-MG
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atletico-MG 36 / 100
Santos 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atletico-MG Santos

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atletico-MG scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Atletico-MG stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Santos's defensive record shows goals conceded in 58% of 31 matches.

Scoring Trends

Atletico-MG VS Santos
1.25 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Atletico-MG

(Home)
19 Sept
Atletico-MG
1 : 1
Chapecoense-SC
16 Sept
Atletico-MG
5 : 2
Santos
12 Sept
Atletico-MG
3 : 1
Fluminense
09 Sept
Santos
2 : 0
Atletico-MG
05 Sept
Sao Paulo
2 : 0
Atletico-MG
Page 1 of 6

Santos

(Away)
19 Sept
Remo
1 : 2
Santos
16 Sept
Atletico-MG
5 : 2
Santos
13 Sept
Santos
2 : 1
Cruzeiro
09 Sept
Santos
2 : 0
Atletico-MG
06 Sept
Internacional
2 : 3
Santos
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Flamengo RJ 28 18 6 4 55:23 60
2 Palmeiras 28 16 9 3 47:21 57
3 Athletico-PR 28 14 7 7 43:32 49
4 Fluminense 28 13 9 6 44:36 48
5 Bahia 28 12 10 6 43:35 46
6 Cruzeiro 28 13 6 9 42:40 45
7 Atletico-MG 27 11 7 9 36:32 40
8 Santos 27 10 8 9 41:40 38
9 Coritiba 28 10 8 10 37:43 38
10 Bragantino 27 10 6 11 33:31 36
11 Sao Paulo 27 10 6 11 32:30 36
12 Botafogo RJ 28 9 8 11 41:45 35
13 Vitoria 28 9 6 13 28:42 33
14 Corinthians 28 8 8 12 29:32 32
15 Mirassol 28 8 8 12 33:42 32
16 Vasco 27 8 7 12 34:41 31
17 Gremio 28 7 8 13 30:38 29
18 Internacional 28 6 10 12 30:36 28
19 Remo 28 5 8 15 32:47 23
20 Chapecoense-SC 27 3 9 15 29:53 18
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana 2027 (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B 2027 (Main)