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Atletico-MG W vs Sao Paulo W

Brazil Brazil

Brasileiro Women Estadio Joaquim Henrique Nogueira (Jacare)
Our Tip

Match Events

7'
Ju Pacheco
39' Event
Pimenta
46'
Sub
Ramos C. In: Karen Bender
Out: Ramos C.

AI Match Summary

The Brasileiro Women game between Atletico-MG W and Sao Paulo W finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sao Paulo W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Atletico-MG W
33%
Draws
40%
Sao Paulo W
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Sao Paulo W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Atletico-MG W haven't matched Sao Paulo W's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Sao Paulo W a 40% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Sao Paulo W here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Atletico-MG W Clean Sheet 23%
Sao Paulo W Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atletico-MG W Sao Paulo W
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 17
Draws 6 3
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1.63 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.5 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 30, 2026 Brasileiro Women
Atletico-MG W vs Sao Paulo W
1:2
May 5, 2024 Brasileiro Women
Sao Paulo W vs Atletico-MG W
6:0
Apr 14, 2023 Brasileiro Women
Atletico-MG W vs Sao Paulo W
1:0
May 30, 2022 Brasileiro Women
Sao Paulo W vs Atletico-MG W
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atletico-MG W Compare

Top Goalscorer Pimenta
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Sao Paulo W Compare

Top Goalscorer Tayla
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mylena Carioca
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atletico-MG W 29 / 100
Sao Paulo W 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atletico-MG W Sao Paulo W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAO Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.75 goals per match.

Atletico-MG W found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).

Sao Paulo W let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Solid form: Atletico-MG W remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Atletico-MG W VS Sao Paulo W
1.63 Goals Scored 1.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.75
100% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Corinthians W1291231:1328
2Palmeiras W1283127:1027
3Sao Paulo W1282219:826
4Ferroviaria W1264219:1222
5CR Flamengo W1264219:1322
6Bahia W1263322:1621
7Cruzeiro W1256123:1421
8Internacional W1262413:1020
9Gremio W1252517:1217
10Bragantino W1252519:2017
11Fluminense W1244414:1416
12Santos W1235412:1514
13Atletico-MG W1233614:1612
14EC Juventude W122377:129
15Mixto W121478:247
16America Mineiro W121386:256
17Botafogo RJ W111287:225
18Vitoria W110387:283