Sport Picks

Brazil

Paulista A4 2019

Amparo SP

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Atletico Mogi play Amparo SP in the Paulista A4 2019. Amparo SP are favorites here. Recently, Atletico Mogi averaged 0.7 goals scored and 2.77 conceded. Amparo SP averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. In past meetings, Atletico Mogi won 0, Amparo SP won 4, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 18, 2019 ended 1:6. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.13 for Atletico Mogi and 1.31 for Amparo SP. This points to a Amparo SP double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%

Atletico Mogi

15%

Draws

64%

Amparo SP

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Amparo SP

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

90% / Very High Confidence

Atletico Mogi picked up more points recently compared to Amparo SP.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 1.31 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 72%

Over 2.5 Goals 52%

Over 3.5 Goals 31%

Over 4.5 Goals 16%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 45%

Atletico Mogi Clean Sheet 18%

Amparo SP Clean Sheet 13%

First Half Goal 65%

Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Atletico Mogi	Amparo SP
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	4	10
Draws	5	6
Losses	21	14
Goals Scored	0.7	1.2
Goals Conceded	2.77	1.4
Expected Goals (xG)	0.50	1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.38	1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 18, 2019 Paulista A4

Atletico Mogi vs Amparo SP

Possession: 56% - 60% Cards: 1 - 0

1:6

Apr 6, 2019 Paulista A4

Amparo SP vs Atletico Mogi

Possession: 51% - 59% Cards: 3 - 1

5:0

Jun 16, 2018 Paulista A4

Atletico Mogi vs Amparo SP

Possession: 57% - 60% Cards: 2 - 2

0:4

Apr 28, 2018 Paulista A4

Amparo SP vs Atletico Mogi

Possession: 53% - 59% Cards: 2 - 3

1:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atletico Mogi 23 / 100

Amparo SP 60 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Atletico Mogi Amparo SP

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Amparo SP Win (2)

Secondary Pick Amparo SP & Over 2.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +61.5%

7.69

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.8%

2.17

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Atletico Mogi attacking → ← attacking Amparo SP

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atletico Mogi scored in 43% of their last 30 games.

Amparo SP let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.25 goals.

Atletico Mogi went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Amparo SP lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

17 Points in last 5 36

0.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.25

1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.75

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Fernandopolis	12	7	4	1	20:8	25
2	Andradina Esporte Clube	12	7	3	2	16:9	24
3	Jose Bonifacio EC	12	5	2	5	12:15	17
4	Tupa	12	5	2	5	15:16	17
5	Osvaldo Cruz	12	4	3	5	12:11	15
6	Bandeirante	12	3	2	7	9:17	11
7	America SP	12	2	2	8	7:15	8

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Francana	12	7	3	2	29:13	24
2	Catanduva FC	12	5	5	2	19:13	20
3	Matonense	12	5	3	4	20:14	18
4	Catanduvense	12	5	2	5	14:14	17
5	Inter de Bebedouro	12	4	5	3	17:14	17
6	Taquaritinga	12	4	3	5	17:19	15
7	Sao-Carlense	12	1	1	10	7:36	4

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Rio Branco SP	12	7	3	2	15:8	24
2	XV de Jau	12	7	3	2	22:9	24
3	Itapirense	12	6	3	3	17:13	21
4	Independente SP	12	6	1	5	21:11	19
5	Uniao Barbarense	12	4	2	6	18:23	14
6	Jaguariuna	12	2	3	7	14:23	9
7	Brasilis	12	1	3	8	5:25	6

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Marilia	10	6	3	1	21:7	21
2	AA Itarare	10	5	4	1	16:3	19
3	Assisense	10	4	4	2	11:6	16
4	Vocem	10	3	4	3	9:7	13
5	Santacruzense	10	2	5	3	14:14	11
6	Elosport	10	0	0	10	3:37	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paulista	12	9	2	1	31:10	29
2	Sao Jose EC	12	6	5	1	22:13	23
3	Amparo SP	12	5	6	1	31:14	21
4	Jacarei FC	12	4	5	3	22:14	17
5	Uniao Mogi	12	4	2	6	18:23	14
6	Manthiqueira	12	2	3	7	7:20	9
7	Atletico Mogi	12	0	1	11	8:45	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo SP	12	7	2	3	20:12	23
2	Uniao Suzano	12	6	4	2	20:16	22
3	Guarulhos	12	6	3	3	15:8	21
4	Mauaense	12	5	5	2	16:8	20
5	Maua FC	12	4	4	4	10:13	16
6	Barcelona SP	12	2	4	6	11:18	10
7	Jabaquara	12	0	2	10	8:25	2