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Atletico Porteno vs EL Nacional

Ecuador Ecuador

Serie B 2021
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Atletico Porteno play EL Nacional in the Serie B 2021. It looks like a close match. Recently, Atletico Porteno averaged 0 goals scored and 0 conceded. EL Nacional averaged 1.25 goals scored and 1.63 conceded. In past meetings, Atletico Porteno won 1, EL Nacional won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Sep 22, 2021 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.42 for Atletico Porteno and 1.18 for EL Nacional. This points to a Atletico Porteno double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Atletico Porteno
11%
Draws
9%
EL Nacional
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Atletico Porteno

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Atletico Porteno has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to EL Nacional.
  • Model forecasts a 80% win probability edge for Atletico Porteno.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Serie B 2021 provide steady trend data.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%
Atletico Porteno Clean Sheet 68%
EL Nacional Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atletico Porteno EL Nacional
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 10 5
Draws 4 8
Losses 16 20
Goals Scored 0 1.25
Goals Conceded 0 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 22, 2021 Serie B
Atletico Porteno vs EL Nacional
1:1
Jul 30, 2021 Serie B
EL Nacional vs Atletico Porteno
3:1
Jun 23, 2021 Serie B
Atletico Porteno vs EL Nacional
1:0
May 20, 2021 Serie B
EL Nacional vs Atletico Porteno
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atletico Porteno Compare

Top Goalscorer Quinonez J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

EL Nacional Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atletico Porteno 86 / 100
EL Nacional 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atletico Porteno EL Nacional

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAP Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atletico Porteno scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

EL Nacional let in goals in 91% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 1.75 goals.

Atletico Porteno went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

EL Nacional lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS EL Nacional
0 Goals Scored 1.25
0 Goals Conceded 1.63
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Cumbaya36207947:3667
2Gualaceo361791046:3160
3EL Nacional361611949:3659
4Chacaritas3612131135:3449
5America de Quito361017941:3347
6Buhos ULVR361451741:5347
7Independiente Juniors3611101545:4643
8Atletico Santo Domingo3610121437:4442
9Atletico Porteno361161946:6439
10LDU Portoviejo369101742:5237