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Atromitos Piraeus vs Apollon Smyrnis

Greece Greece

Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 2023/2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Atromitos Piraeus play Apollon Smyrnis in the Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 2023/2024. Apollon Smyrnis are favorites here. Recently, Atromitos Piraeus averaged 0.5 goals scored and 3.2 conceded. Apollon Smyrnis averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. In past meetings, Atromitos Piraeus won 0, Apollon Smyrnis won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 28, 2024 ended 5:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.06 for Atromitos Piraeus and 2.63 for Apollon Smyrnis. This points to a Apollon Smyrnis double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

14%
Atromitos Piraeus
17%
Draws
69%
Apollon Smyrnis
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Apollon Smyrnis

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Atromitos Piraeus picked up more points recently compared to Apollon Smyrnis.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.06 vs 2.63 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 56%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 56%
Over 3.5 Goals 34%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27%
Atromitos Piraeus Clean Sheet 10%
Apollon Smyrnis Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 66%
Second Half Goal 69%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atromitos Piraeus Apollon Smyrnis
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 3 10
Draws 1 9
Losses 26 11
Goals Scored 0.5 1.2
Goals Conceded 3.2 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 3.75 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 28, 2024 Gamma Ethniki - Group 4
Apollon Smyrnis vs Atromitos Piraeus
5:0
Jan 7, 2024 Gamma Ethniki - Group 4
Atromitos Piraeus vs Apollon Smyrnis
0:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atromitos Piraeus 15 / 100
Apollon Smyrnis 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atromitos Piraeus Apollon Smyrnis

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Apollon Smyrnis Win (2)
Secondary Pick Apollon Smyrnis & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +133.4%
16.67
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12%
2.00
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Atromitos Piraeus attacking → ← attacking Apollon Smyrnis

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atromitos Piraeus scored in 23% of their last 30 games.

Apollon Smyrnis let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Atromitos Piraeus went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Apollon Smyrnis lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

10 Points in last 5 39
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.50
3.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Panionios34266281:2284
2Ethnikos Piraeus342012261:1972
3Almyros Gaziou341712559:2863
4Aris Petroupolis341861047:3860
5AO Ilisiakos34169943:2957
6Ipato341491145:3451
7Atsalenios FC341481241:3350
8Agios Nikolaos3414101055:3849
9Chaidari3413101139:2949
10Ellopiakos341391245:4348
11AO Proodeftiki341461447:3848
12Apollon Smyrnis3410121239:3742
13Ermis Zonianon349101536:5437
14Episkopi349101540:5437
15Peramaikos34932232:5830
16Fostiras346131529:4028
17Paraskevi34552426:8217
18Atromitos Piraeus34322916:10511