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Atyrau vs FC Astana - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

Premier League Turkestan Arena, Turkestan
Atyrau Logo

Atyrau

2 - 3
FT
FC Astana Logo

FC Astana

Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Islamkhan B.
32'
Khvalko E.
38'
Basic I.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

FC Astana in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored FC Astana.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Atyrau
15%
Draws
51%
FC Astana
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: FC Astana

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to FC Astana lately — more wins on the board than Atyrau.
  • Model gives FC Astana a 51% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors FC Astana here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Atyrau Clean Sheet 11%
FC Astana Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atyrau FC Astana
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 6 15
Draws 11 5
Losses 11 8
Goals Scored 0.86 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.11 1.18
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 30, 2026 Premier League
Atyrau vs FC Astana
2:3
Apr 26, 2026 Premier League
FC Astana vs Atyrau
2:1
Apr 30, 2025 Premier League
Atyrau vs FC Astana
0:2
Apr 26, 2025 Premier League
FC Astana vs Atyrau
2:1
Oct 30, 2024 Premier League
FC Astana vs Atyrau
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atyrau Compare

Top Goalscorer Pantelic D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Henrique
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

FC Astana Compare

Top Goalscorer Islamkhan B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Basmanov S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atyrau 27 / 100
FC Astana 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atyrau FC Astana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FC Astana Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Atyrau scored in 61% of their last 28 outings.

Defensive concern: FC Astana conceded in 71% of 28 recent games.

Recent resilience: Atyrau stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Atyrau VS FC Astana
0.88 Goals Scored 2.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Atyrau

(Home)
10 Oct
Zhenis
1 : 2
Atyrau
17 Sept
Atyrau
0 : 3
Ordabasy
12 Sept
Kaisar Kyzylorda
1 : 0
Atyrau
05 Sept
Kyzylzhar
0 : 1
Atyrau
30 Aug
Atyrau
2 : 3
FC Astana
Page 1 of 6

FC Astana

(Away)
10 Oct
Tobol
2 : 1
FC Astana
17 Sept
FC Astana
1 : 0
Kairat Almaty
12 Sept
Ordabasy
1 : 0
FC Astana
06 Sept
FC Astana
4 : 0
Yelimay Semey
30 Aug
Atyrau
2 : 3
FC Astana
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ordabasy 26 19 4 3 51:18 61
2 Kairat Almaty 27 18 6 3 52:20 60
3 FC Astana 26 14 6 6 43:27 48
4 Aktobe 27 13 6 8 41:32 45
5 Okzhetpes 27 13 6 8 41:37 45
6 Yelimay Semey 26 10 8 8 36:36 38
7 Tobol 27 11 4 12 35:36 37
8 Ulytau 27 9 8 10 26:32 35
9 Zhenis 27 8 8 11 27:34 32
10 Kaspij Aktau 26 8 5 13 27:36 29
11 Kyzylzhar 27 7 6 14 28:40 27
12 Atyrau 26 5 11 10 20:29 26
13 Ertis Pavlodar 26 6 8 12 26:36 26
14 Altai 26 6 7 13 26:36 25
15 Kaisar Kyzylorda 26 4 12 10 22:33 24
16 Zhetysu Taldykorgan 27 5 7 15 26:45 22
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - First League 2027 (Main)