Sport Picks
Atyrau vs Kairat Almaty - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Kazakhstan
Premier League Turkestan Arena, Turkestan 
Match Events
8'
8'
Prce F.
Own Goal
15'
15'
Edmilson
Assist: Jukkola O.
24'
24'
Edmilson
AI Match Summary
Kairat Almaty in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Kairat Almaty.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
34%
15%
51%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Kairat Almaty
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
15%
/ Low Confidence
- Atyrau haven't matched Kairat Almaty's recent run of results.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
- Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- Kairat Almaty have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Atyrau Clean Sheet 17%
Kairat Almaty Clean Sheet 14%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Atyrau | Kairat Almaty |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 6 | 17 |
| Draws | 11 | 3 |
| Losses | 11 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 0.86 | 1.68 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.11 | 0.96 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.06 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 18, 2026 Premier League
Atyrau vs Kairat Almaty
1:3
Jun 13, 2026 Premier League
Kairat Almaty vs Atyrau
1:1
Apr 16, 2025 Premier League
Kairat Almaty vs Atyrau
4:0
Apr 6, 2025 Premier League
Atyrau vs Kairat Almaty
1:4
Nov 10, 2024 Premier League
Atyrau vs Kairat Almaty
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Atyrau Compare
Top Goalscorer Henrique
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53
Kairat Almaty Compare
Top Goalscorer Edmilson
2 Goals Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Atyrau 31 / 100
Kairat Almaty 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Atyrau Kairat Almaty
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.
Atyrau scored in 61% of their last 28 games.
Kairat Almaty's defensive record shows goals conceded in 64% of 28 matches.
Atyrau has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Atyrau VS Kairat Almaty
0.63 Goals Scored 1.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
50% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Atyrau
(Home) 10 Oct
Zhenis
1 : 2 Atyrau
17 Sept
Atyrau
0 : 3 Ordabasy
12 Sept
Kaisar Kyzylorda
1 : 0 Atyrau
05 Sept
Kyzylzhar
0 : 1 Atyrau
30 Aug
Atyrau
2 : 3 FC Astana
Page 1 of 6
17 Sept
Atyrau
0 : 3 Ordabasy
30 Aug
Atyrau
2 : 3 FC Astana
16 Aug
Atyrau
0 : 2 Okzhetpes
09 Aug
Atyrau
1 : 1 Aktobe
01 Aug
Atyrau
1 : 1 Zhetysu Taldykorgan
Page 1 of 3
Kairat Almaty
(Away) 10 Oct
Kairat Almaty
1 : 0 Zhetysu Taldykorgan
17 Sept
FC Astana
1 : 0 Kairat Almaty
13 Sept
Kairat Almaty
1 : 4 Tobol
09 Sept
Kairat Almaty
3 : 0 Zhenis
05 Sept
Kaspij Aktau
0 : 3 Kairat Almaty
Page 1 of 6
17 Sept
FC Astana
1 : 0 Kairat Almaty
05 Sept
Kaspij Aktau
0 : 3 Kairat Almaty
31 Aug
Yelimay Semey
0 : 2 Kairat Almaty
27 Aug
Anderlecht
3 : 0 Kairat Almaty
04 Aug
Levski Sofia
1 : 0 Kairat Almaty
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 26 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 51:18 | 61 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 27 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 52:20 | 60 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 26 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 43:27 | 48 |
| 4 | Aktobe | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 41:32 | 45 |
| 5 | Okzhetpes | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 41:35 | 45 |
| 6 | Yelimay Semey | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 36:36 | 38 |
| 7 | Tobol | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 35:36 | 37 |
| 8 | Zhenis | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 27:34 | 32 |
| 9 | Ulytau | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 24:32 | 32 |
| 10 | Kaspij Aktau | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 27:36 | 29 |
| 11 | Kyzylzhar | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 28:40 | 27 |
| 12 | Atyrau | 26 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 20:29 | 26 |
| 13 | Ertis Pavlodar | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 26:36 | 26 |
| 14 | Altai | 26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 26:36 | 25 |
| 15 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 22:33 | 24 |
| 16 | Zhetysu Taldykorgan | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 26:45 | 22 |
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - First League 2027 (Main)
