Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Atyrau vs Ordabasy

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

Premier League Turkestan Arena, Turkestan
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Johnsen B.
Assist: Leo Natel
40'
Tkachenko Y.
46'
Sub
Keita T. In: Capatina M.
Out: Keita T.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Atyrau and Ordabasy finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ordabasy.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

17%
Atyrau
15%
Draws
68%
Ordabasy
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ordabasy

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

68% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ordabasy come out ahead of Atyrau on wins alone.
  • Ordabasy are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Atyrau Clean Sheet 10%
Ordabasy Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atyrau Ordabasy
Matches Played 29 32
Wins 5 25
Draws 11 4
Losses 13 3
Goals Scored 0.79 2.22
Goals Conceded 1.24 0.72
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 17, 2026 Premier League
Atyrau vs Ordabasy
0:3
Apr 4, 2026 Premier League
Ordabasy vs Atyrau
1:1
Aug 3, 2025 Premier League
Ordabasy vs Atyrau
2:2
May 3, 2025 Premier League
Atyrau vs Ordabasy
1:2
Sep 15, 2024 Premier League
Ordabasy vs Atyrau
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atyrau Compare

Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Ordabasy Compare

Top Goalscorer Johnsen B.
3 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atyrau 10 / 100
Ordabasy 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atyrau Ordabasy

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ordabasy Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Attacking prowess: Atyrau scored in 59% of their last 29 outings.

Defensive concern: Ordabasy conceded in 53% of 32 recent games.

Atyrau has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Atyrau VS Ordabasy
0.75 Goals Scored 2.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Atyrau

(Home)
17 Sept
Atyrau
0 : 3
Ordabasy
12 Sept
Kaisar Kyzylorda
1 : 0
Atyrau
05 Sept
Kyzylzhar
0 : 1
Atyrau
30 Aug
Atyrau
2 : 3
FC Astana
16 Aug
Atyrau
0 : 2
Okzhetpes
Page 1 of 6

Ordabasy

(Away)
17 Sept
Atyrau
0 : 3
Ordabasy
12 Sept
Ordabasy
1 : 0
FC Astana
05 Sept
Okzhetpes
2 : 1
Ordabasy
29 Aug
Ordabasy
3 : 0
Kyzylzhar
19 Aug
Altai
1 : 2
Ordabasy
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ordabasy 26 19 4 3 51:18 61
2 Kairat Almaty 26 17 6 3 51:20 57
3 FC Astana 25 14 6 5 42:25 48
4 Okzhetpes 26 13 6 7 41:35 45
5 Aktobe 26 12 6 8 38:31 42
6 Yelimay Semey 25 10 8 7 35:33 38
7 Tobol 26 10 4 12 33:35 34
8 Zhenis 26 8 8 10 26:32 32
9 Ulytau 26 8 8 10 24:32 32
10 Kaspij Aktau 26 8 5 13 27:36 29
11 Ertis Pavlodar 25 6 8 11 26:34 26
12 Altai 26 6 7 13 26:36 25
13 Kaisar Kyzylorda 26 4 12 10 22:33 24
14 Kyzylzhar 26 6 6 14 26:40 24
15 Atyrau 25 4 11 10 18:28 23
16 Zhetysu Taldykorgan 26 5 7 14 26:44 22
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - First League 2027 (Main)