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Atyrau vs Yelimay Semey - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

Premier League Turkestan Arena, Turkestan
Wed, Oct 14, 2026
VS
11:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Atyrau host Yelimay Semey in the Premier League. Recent form is the clearest guide to this one. Yelimay Semey have shipped 1.38 goals a game lately, while Atyrau have conceded 1.18 and scored 0.82. Head-to-head, Atyrau have won 3 to Yelimay Semey's 2, with 0 draws. They last met on Jun 21, 2026, ending 1:2. The numbers (1.19 xG vs 1.31) point toward Yelimay Semey. The prediction model leans Draw; both defenses could hold firm.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Atyrau
15%
Draws
59%
Yelimay Semey
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Yelimay Semey

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Yelimay Semey have won more games recently than Atyrau.
  • Atyrau are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Atyrau Clean Sheet 18%
Yelimay Semey Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atyrau Yelimay Semey
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 5 11
Draws 11 9
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 0.82 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.18 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 21, 2026 Premier League
Yelimay Semey vs Atyrau
1:2
Oct 26, 2025 Premier League
Yelimay Semey vs Atyrau
3:2
Mar 1, 2025 Premier League
Atyrau vs Yelimay Semey
2:1
Oct 26, 2024 Premier League
Atyrau vs Yelimay Semey
1:0
Jul 20, 2024 League Cup
Yelimay Semey vs Atyrau
3:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atyrau 36 / 100
Yelimay Semey 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atyrau Yelimay Semey

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Atyrau scored in 61% of their last 28 outings.

Yelimay Semey's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Atyrau has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Atyrau VS Yelimay Semey
0.63 Goals Scored 1.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Atyrau

(Home)
17 Sept
Atyrau
0 : 3
Ordabasy
12 Sept
Kaisar Kyzylorda
1 : 0
Atyrau
05 Sept
Kyzylzhar
0 : 1
Atyrau
30 Aug
Atyrau
2 : 3
FC Astana
16 Aug
Atyrau
0 : 2
Okzhetpes
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Yelimay Semey

(Away)
17 Sept
Tobol
0 : 2
Yelimay Semey
12 Sept
Yelimay Semey
2 : 1
Zhetysu Taldykorgan
06 Sept
FC Astana
4 : 0
Yelimay Semey
31 Aug
Yelimay Semey
0 : 2
Kairat Almaty
16 Aug
Kaspij Aktau
2 : 2
Yelimay Semey
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ordabasy 26 19 4 3 51:18 61
2 Kairat Almaty 26 17 6 3 51:20 57
3 FC Astana 25 14 6 5 42:25 48
4 Okzhetpes 26 13 6 7 41:35 45
5 Aktobe 26 12 6 8 38:31 42
6 Yelimay Semey 25 10 8 7 35:33 38
7 Tobol 26 10 4 12 33:35 34
8 Zhenis 26 8 8 10 26:32 32
9 Ulytau 26 8 8 10 24:32 32
10 Kaspij Aktau 26 8 5 13 27:36 29
11 Ertis Pavlodar 25 6 8 11 26:34 26
12 Altai 26 6 7 13 26:36 25
13 Kaisar Kyzylorda 26 4 12 10 22:33 24
14 Kyzylzhar 26 6 6 14 26:40 24
15 Atyrau 25 4 11 10 18:28 23
16 Zhetysu Taldykorgan 26 5 7 14 26:44 22
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - First League 2027 (Main)