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Aubagne FC vs Bastia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

77' Event
90' Event
Rodrigues C.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly game between Aubagne FC and Bastia finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Aubagne FC
30%
Draws
39%
Bastia
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Bastia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Aubagne FC haven't matched Bastia's recent run of results.
  • Aubagne FC are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Bastia here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 28%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Aubagne FC Clean Sheet 20%
Bastia Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aubagne FC Bastia
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 5 6
Draws 7 12
Losses 17 10
Goals Scored 0.86 0.96
Goals Conceded 1.52 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 14, 2026 Ligue 3
Aubagne FC vs Bastia
0:1
Jul 24, 2026 Club Friendly
Aubagne FC vs Bastia
1:1
Jul 19, 2025 Club Friendly
Bastia vs Aubagne FC
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aubagne FC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Bastia Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodrigues C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aubagne FC 42 / 100
Bastia 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aubagne FC Bastia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aubagne FC found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Bastia conceded in 68% of 28 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.33 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Aubagne FC stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Aubagne FC VS Bastia
0.5 Goals Scored 0.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Aubagne FC

(Home)
03 Oct
La Roche Vendee
3 : 1
Aubagne FC
26 Sept
Fleury 91
1 : 2
Aubagne FC
19 Sept
Rouen
1 : 0
Aubagne FC
12 Sept
Aubagne FC
1 : 2
Concarneau
05 Sept
Paris 13 Atletico
0 : 0
Aubagne FC
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Bastia

(Away)
01 Oct
Bastia
1 : 1
Orleans
26 Sept
Paris 13 Atletico
1 : 0
Bastia
17 Sept
Bastia
1 : 1
Cannes
12 Sept
Bourg Peronnas
0 : 1
Bastia
05 Sept
Bastia
0 : 3
Amiens SC
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