Sport Picks
Aubagne FC vs Bourg Peronnas - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
France
Ligue 3 Stade de Lattre-de-Tassigny, Aubagne 
Match Events
6'
6'
Sahraoui J.
Assist: Faiz A.
11'
11'
Nehari M.
Assist: Faiz A.
16'
16'
Sahraoui J.
AI Match Summary
The Ligue 3 game between Aubagne FC and Bourg Peronnas finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Aubagne FC.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
47%
30%
23%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Aubagne FC
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Bourg Peronnas carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model gives Aubagne FC a 47% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Aubagne FC Clean Sheet 68%
Bourg Peronnas Clean Sheet 14%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Aubagne FC | Bourg Peronnas |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 32 |
| Wins | 5 | 10 |
| Draws | 7 | 6 |
| Losses | 17 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 0.86 | 0.78 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.52 | 1.47 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.06 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 29, 2026 Ligue 3
Aubagne FC vs Bourg Peronnas
2:0
Feb 13, 2026 Ligue 3
Aubagne FC vs Bourg Peronnas
1:0
Sep 5, 2025 Ligue 3
Bourg Peronnas vs Aubagne FC
0:0
Mar 14, 2025 Ligue 3
Aubagne FC vs Bourg Peronnas
1:0
Oct 18, 2024 Ligue 3
Bourg Peronnas vs Aubagne FC
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Aubagne FC Compare
Top Goalscorer Sahraoui J.
1 Goals Assists Leader Nehari M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53
Bourg Peronnas Compare
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Aubagne FC 50 / 100
Bourg Peronnas 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Aubagne FC Bourg Peronnas
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Aubagne FC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Aubagne FC scored in 66% of their last 29 games.
Bourg Peronnas let in goals in 75% of their last 32 matches.
Bourg Peronnas's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.
These sides typically produce 1.40 goals when they meet.
Scoring Trends
Aubagne FC VS Bourg Peronnas
0.5 Goals Scored 0.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.63
50% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Aubagne FC
(Home) 03 Oct
La Roche Vendee
3 : 1 Aubagne FC
26 Sept
Fleury 91
1 : 2 Aubagne FC
19 Sept
Rouen
1 : 0 Aubagne FC
12 Sept
Aubagne FC
1 : 2 Concarneau
05 Sept
Paris 13 Atletico
0 : 0 Aubagne FC
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Aubagne FC
1 : 2 Concarneau
29 Aug
Aubagne FC
2 : 0 Bourg Peronnas
14 Aug
Aubagne FC
0 : 1 Bastia
07 Aug
Aubagne FC
0 : 3 Thionville
24 Jul
Aubagne FC
1 : 1 Bastia
Page 1 of 3
Bourg Peronnas
(Away) 03 Oct
Rouen
2 : 0 Bourg Peronnas
26 Sept
Bourg Peronnas
1 : 1 Concarneau
19 Sept
Paris 13 Atletico
1 : 1 Bourg Peronnas
12 Sept
Bourg Peronnas
0 : 1 Bastia
05 Sept
Bourg Peronnas
0 : 2 Caen
Page 1 of 7
03 Oct
Rouen
2 : 0 Bourg Peronnas
19 Sept
Paris 13 Atletico
1 : 1 Bourg Peronnas
29 Aug
Aubagne FC
2 : 0 Bourg Peronnas
14 Aug
Valenciennes
2 : 0 Bourg Peronnas
11 Jul
Grenoble
0 : 0 Bourg Peronnas
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Roche Vendee | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 15:8 | 21 |
| 2 | Rouen | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17:5 | 20 |
| 3 | Concarneau | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 12:8 | 16 |
| 4 | Versailles | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 13:12 | 16 |
| 5 | Amiens SC | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 12:3 | 15 |
| 6 | Cannes | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 11:4 | 15 |
| 7 | Caen | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 17:12 | 15 |
| 8 | Le Puy-en-Velay | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 11:9 | 13 |
| 9 | Thionville | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14:14 | 12 |
| 10 | Fleury 91 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15:12 | 12 |
| 11 | Paris 13 Atletico | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7:9 | 12 |
| 12 | Bastia | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7:11 | 11 |
| 13 | Quevilly | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8:12 | 10 |
| 14 | Orleans | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7:11 | 9 |
| 15 | Valenciennes | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9:14 | 8 |
| 16 | Aubagne FC | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6:12 | 7 |
| 17 | Bourg Peronnas | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5:15 | 5 |
| 18 | Villefranche | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7:22 | 4 |
Promotion - Ligue 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Relegation)
