Sport Picks

France

National 2025/2026 Stade de Lattre-de-Tassigny

Match Events

16'

Sub

Rocchia C. In: Madi K.

Out: Rocchia C.

28'

Bentoumi M.

Assist: Madi K.

57'

Sub

Dali Amar B. In: Portut K.

Out: Dali Amar B.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Aubagne FC host Caen in the National 2025/2026. This one's hard to separate. Caen have shipped 0.75 goals a game lately, while Aubagne FC have conceded 1.75 and scored 0.88. Head-to-head, Aubagne FC have won 1 to Caen's 1, with 0 draws. They last met on May 15, 2026, ending 3:1. xG projections (0.81 - 1.63) back Caen to edge this. Caen in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%

Aubagne FC

28%

Draws

50%

Caen

Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Caen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence

Aubagne FC has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Caen.
Model forecasts a 50% win probability edge for Caen.
League standings and seasonal metrics in National 2025/2026 provide steady trend data.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%

Over 1.5 Goals 88%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%

Aubagne FC Clean Sheet 14%

Caen Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Aubagne FC	Caen
Matches Played	30	28
Wins	8	7
Draws	8	13
Losses	14	8
Goals Scored	0.88	1.5
Goals Conceded	1.75	0.75
Expected Goals (xG)	0.88	1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.75	0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 15, 2026 Ligue 3

Aubagne FC vs Caen

Possession: 57% - 57% Cards: 2 - 3

3:1

Aug 8, 2025 Ligue 3

Caen vs Aubagne FC

Possession: 53% - 45% Cards: 3 - 3

3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aubagne FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Bentoumi M.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Mayilla E.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.44

Caen Compare

Top Goalscorer Botella I.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.36

Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aubagne FC 23 / 100

Caen 49 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Aubagne FC Caen

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAE Win (2)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aubagne FC scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Caen let in goals in 64% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

Aubagne FC went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Caen lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Aubagne FC VS Caen

0.88 Goals Scored 1.5

1.75 Goals Conceded 0.75

88% Over 1.5 88%

50% Over 2.5 38%

25% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Dijon	32	18	11	3	52:25	65
2	Sochaux	32	16	10	6	51:26	58
3	Rouen	32	14	13	5	43:29	55
4	Fleury-Merogis	32	15	9	8	47:30	54
5	Versailles	32	15	8	9	46:34	53
6	Orleans	32	14	9	9	42:42	51
7	Le Puy-en-Velay	32	12	11	9	45:38	47
8	Caen	32	8	16	8	39:34	40
9	Concarneau	32	8	14	10	32:37	38
10	Valenciennes	32	10	8	14	35:44	37
11	Aubagne FC	32	9	10	13	38:46	37
12	Villefranche	32	10	7	15	34:45	37
13	Quevilly	32	8	9	15	34:45	33
14	Paris 13 Atletico	32	7	11	14	26:41	32
15	Bourg Peronnas	32	8	7	17	25:44	31
16	Chateauroux	32	6	13	13	35:49	30
17	Stade Briochin	32	5	12	15	35:50	27