Sport Picks

France

National 2025/2026 Stade de Lattre-de-Tassigny

Aubagne FC

1 - 2

Fleury-Merogis

Our Tip

Match Events

Karamoko H.

16'

Bovis E.

21'

Abdallah M.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The National 2025/2026 game between Aubagne FC and Fleury-Merogis finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Fleury-Merogis.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%

Aubagne FC

Draws

Fleury-Merogis

Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Aubagne FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

Fleury-Merogis carry the better recent record into this one.
Win probability leans Aubagne FC's way, sitting at 90%.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%

Over 1.5 Goals 100%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%

Aubagne FC Clean Sheet 68%

Fleury-Merogis Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Aubagne FC	Fleury-Merogis
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	8	12
Draws	8	8
Losses	14	10
Goals Scored	1.38	2.13
Goals Conceded	1.75	0.88
Expected Goals (xG)	1.38	2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.75	0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 6, 2026 Ligue 3

Aubagne FC vs Fleury-Merogis

Possession: 56% - 56% Cards: 1 - 3

1:2

Sep 26, 2025 Ligue 3

Fleury-Merogis vs Aubagne FC

Possession: 57% - 44% Cards: 4 - 0

0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aubagne FC Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06

Avg xA / game 0.69

Fleury-Merogis Compare

Top Goalscorer Farade K.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.94

Avg xA / game 1.18

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aubagne FC 95 / 100

Fleury-Merogis 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Aubagne FC Fleury-Merogis

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AUB Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fleury-Merogis's recent record shows 5 losses from the last 5 matches.

Aubagne FC's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Fleury-Merogis conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.50 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Aubagne FC VS Fleury-Merogis

1.38 Goals Scored 2.13

1.75 Goals Conceded 0.88

100% Over 1.5 100%

63% Over 2.5 63%

38% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Dijon	32	18	11	3	52:25	65
2	Sochaux	32	16	10	6	51:26	58
3	Rouen	32	14	13	5	43:29	55
4	Fleury-Merogis	32	15	9	8	47:30	54
5	Versailles	32	15	8	9	46:34	53
6	Orleans	32	14	9	9	42:42	51
7	Le Puy-en-Velay	32	12	11	9	45:38	47
8	Caen	32	8	16	8	39:34	40
9	Concarneau	32	8	14	10	32:37	38
10	Valenciennes	32	10	8	14	35:44	37
11	Aubagne FC	32	9	10	13	38:46	37
12	Villefranche	32	10	7	15	34:45	37
13	Quevilly	32	8	9	15	34:45	33
14	Paris 13 Atletico	32	7	11	14	26:41	32
15	Bourg Peronnas	32	8	7	17	25:44	31
16	Chateauroux	32	6	13	13	35:49	30
17	Stade Briochin	32	5	12	15	35:50	27