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Aubagne FC vs Le Puy-en-Velay - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

France France

Ligue 3 Stade de Lattre-de-Tassigny, Aubagne
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
12:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Aubagne FC host Le Puy-en-Velay in the Ligue 3. Le Puy-en-Velay go into this one as the clear favorite. Aubagne FC have averaged 0.86 scored and 1.52 conceded recently, against Le Puy-en-Velay's 1.24 scored and 1.21 conceded. Head-to-head, Aubagne FC have won 3 to Le Puy-en-Velay's 1, with 1 draws. They last met on Apr 10, 2026, ending 1:2. xG projections (1.20 - 1.00) back Le Puy-en-Velay to edge this. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: NG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Aubagne FC
20%
Draws
51%
Le Puy-en-Velay
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Le Puy-en-Velay

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Le Puy-en-Velay lately — more wins on the board than Aubagne FC.
  • Model gives Le Puy-en-Velay a 51% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Ligue 3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Aubagne FC Clean Sheet 23%
Le Puy-en-Velay Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aubagne FC Le Puy-en-Velay
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 5 10
Draws 7 9
Losses 17 10
Goals Scored 0.86 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.52 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 10, 2026 Ligue 3
Le Puy-en-Velay vs Aubagne FC
1:2
Nov 7, 2025 Ligue 3
Aubagne FC vs Le Puy-en-Velay
1:4
Apr 20, 2024 National 1 - Group A
Le Puy-en-Velay vs Aubagne FC
1:2
Dec 2, 2023 National 1 - Group A
Aubagne FC vs Le Puy-en-Velay
0:0
Nov 16, 2013 Coupe de France
Aubagne FC vs Le Puy-en-Velay
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aubagne FC 29 / 100
Le Puy-en-Velay 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aubagne FC Le Puy-en-Velay

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Le Puy-en-Velay Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Aubagne FC scored in 66% of their last 29 outings.

Le Puy-en-Velay's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Aubagne FC went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Aubagne FC VS Le Puy-en-Velay
0.5 Goals Scored 1.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Aubagne FC

(Home)
03 Oct
La Roche Vendee
3 : 1
Aubagne FC
26 Sept
Fleury 91
1 : 2
Aubagne FC
19 Sept
Rouen
1 : 0
Aubagne FC
12 Sept
Aubagne FC
1 : 2
Concarneau
05 Sept
Paris 13 Atletico
0 : 0
Aubagne FC
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Le Puy-en-Velay

(Away)
03 Oct
Le Puy-en-Velay
1 : 0
Thionville
26 Sept
Valenciennes
2 : 1
Le Puy-en-Velay
19 Sept
Le Puy-en-Velay
4 : 1
Villefranche
12 Sept
Quevilly
2 : 1
Le Puy-en-Velay
05 Sept
Le Puy-en-Velay
1 : 1
Orleans
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 La Roche Vendee 9 6 3 0 15:8 21
2 Rouen 9 6 2 1 17:5 20
3 Concarneau 9 4 4 1 12:8 16
4 Versailles 9 5 1 3 13:12 16
5 Amiens SC 9 4 3 2 12:3 15
6 Cannes 9 3 6 0 11:4 15
7 Caen 9 5 0 4 17:12 15
8 Le Puy-en-Velay 9 4 1 4 11:9 13
9 Thionville 9 3 3 3 14:14 12
10 Fleury 91 9 3 3 3 15:12 12
11 Paris 13 Atletico 9 3 3 3 7:9 12
12 Bastia 9 3 2 4 7:11 11
13 Quevilly 9 2 4 3 8:12 10
14 Orleans 9 2 3 4 7:11 9
15 Valenciennes 9 2 2 5 9:14 8
16 Aubagne FC 9 2 1 6 6:12 7
17 Bourg Peronnas 9 1 2 6 5:15 5
18 Villefranche 9 1 1 7 7:22 4
Promotion - Ligue 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Relegation)