Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Aubagne FC vs Thionville - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

France France

Ligue 3 Stade de Lattre-de-Tassigny, Aubagne
Our Tip

Match Events

5'
Tafni A.
13'
Atangana J.
19'
Tubio K.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 3 game between Aubagne FC and Thionville finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Thionville.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Aubagne FC
30%
Draws
23%
Thionville
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Aubagne FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Aubagne FC haven't matched Thionville's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Aubagne FC's way, sitting at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Aubagne FC Clean Sheet 17%
Thionville Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aubagne FC Thionville
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 5 11
Draws 7 9
Losses 17 9
Goals Scored 0.86 1.69
Goals Conceded 1.52 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 7, 2026 Ligue 3
Aubagne FC vs Thionville
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aubagne FC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Thionville Compare

Top Goalscorer Moustaid J.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aubagne FC 48 / 100
Thionville 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aubagne FC Thionville

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aubagne FC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aubagne FC scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: Thionville conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Thionville lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Aubagne FC VS Thionville
0.63 Goals Scored 1.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
50% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Aubagne FC

(Home)
03 Oct
La Roche Vendee
3 : 1
Aubagne FC
26 Sept
Fleury 91
1 : 2
Aubagne FC
19 Sept
Rouen
1 : 0
Aubagne FC
12 Sept
Aubagne FC
1 : 2
Concarneau
05 Sept
Paris 13 Atletico
0 : 0
Aubagne FC
Page 1 of 6

Thionville

(Away)
03 Oct
Le Puy-en-Velay
1 : 0
Thionville
26 Sept
Thionville
1 : 2
La Roche Vendee
19 Sept
Fleury 91
1 : 1
Thionville
12 Sept
Thionville
0 : 4
Rouen
05 Sept
Concarneau
2 : 2
Thionville
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 La Roche Vendee 9 6 3 0 15:8 21
2 Rouen 9 6 2 1 17:5 20
3 Concarneau 9 4 4 1 12:8 16
4 Versailles 9 5 1 3 13:12 16
5 Amiens SC 9 4 3 2 12:3 15
6 Cannes 9 3 6 0 11:4 15
7 Caen 9 5 0 4 17:12 15
8 Le Puy-en-Velay 9 4 1 4 11:9 13
9 Thionville 9 3 3 3 14:14 12
10 Fleury 91 9 3 3 3 15:12 12
11 Paris 13 Atletico 9 3 3 3 7:9 12
12 Bastia 9 3 2 4 7:11 11
13 Quevilly 9 2 4 3 8:12 10
14 Orleans 9 2 3 4 7:11 9
15 Valenciennes 9 2 2 5 9:14 8
16 Aubagne FC 9 2 1 6 6:12 7
17 Bourg Peronnas 9 1 2 6 5:15 5
18 Villefranche 9 1 1 7 7:22 4
Promotion - Ligue 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Relegation)