Sport Picks

France

National 2 - Group C 2023/2024

Guingamp II

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Risks Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This National 2 - Group C 2023/2024 encounter between Aubervilliers and Guingamp II promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. Aubervilliers averages 1.7 goals scored and 1.8 conceded in recent matches. Guingamp II shows a form average of 1.1 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 1 wins for Aubervilliers, 1 wins for Guingamp II, and 0 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 17.02.24 ended in a 1:2 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.04 for Aubervilliers and 1.25 for Guingamp II, suggesting the primary value lies in the Aubervilliers double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%

Aubervilliers

23%

Draws

38%

Guingamp II

Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Aubervilliers

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence

Aubervilliers picked up more points recently compared to Guingamp II.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.04 vs 1.25 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 62%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 84%

Over 2.5 Goals 62%

Over 3.5 Goals 37%

Over 4.5 Goals 19%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65%

Aubervilliers Clean Sheet 19%

Guingamp II Clean Sheet 14%

First Half Goal 76%

Second Half Goal 80%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Aubervilliers	Guingamp II
Matches Played	32	29
Wins	7	8
Draws	11	2
Losses	14	19
Goals Scored	1.69	1.14
Goals Conceded	1.84	1.83

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

17.02.24 National 2 - Group C

Aubervilliers vs Guingamp II

Possession: 59% - 55% Cards: 3 - 3

1:2

16.09.23 National 2 - Group C

Guingamp II vs Aubervilliers

Possession: 48% - 51% Cards: 3 - 0

2:3

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Aubervilliers

Pressing Intensity Medium Block

Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks

Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses

Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Guingamp II

Pressing Intensity Medium Block

Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks

Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle

Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aubervilliers Compare

Top Goalscorer Harragui B.

1 Goals

Assists Leader N/A

0 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.44

Guingamp II Compare

Top Goalscorer El Manssouri O.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Touzghar R.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0

Avg xA / game 0

Availability Alerts

No availability alerts or suspensions reported for this fixture.

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aubervilliers 39 / 100

Guingamp II 37 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Aubervilliers Guingamp II

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Aubervilliers or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +26%

3.23

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +11%

1.79

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Both sides are expected to start cautiously, looking to control the midfield battle.

Aubervilliers 43%

Guingamp II 30%

15' - 30' Dominance Index

The game is expected to settle into a tactical block, with both managers looking for space on the flanks.

Aubervilliers 37%

Guingamp II 40%

30' - 45' Dominance Index

The tempo could accelerate as both teams push for an opening goal before half-time.

Aubervilliers 39%

Guingamp II 38%

45' - 60' Dominance Index

Expect tactical adjustments from both sides, possibly shifting to a wider play style.

Aubervilliers 41%

Guingamp II 36%

60' - 75' Dominance Index

As players tire, spaces will open up, leading to transitional counter-attacks for both teams.

Aubervilliers 35%

Guingamp II 42%

75' - 90' Dominance Index

A high-risk final phase where any defensive lapse could lead to late drama and decide the match.

Aubervilliers 45%

Guingamp II 44%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Aubervilliers attacking → ← attacking Guingamp II

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aubervilliers have found the net in 78% of their last 32 matches.

Guingamp II have conceded at least one goal in 86% of their last 29 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 4.00 goals per match.

Aubervilliers remained undefeated in 2 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Guingamp II suffered defeat in 3 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate

Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

32 Points in last 5 26

0.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.00

1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Boulogne	26	15	6	5	48:29	51
2	Saint-Malo	26	12	8	6	38:23	44
3	Granville	26	12	7	7	35:31	43
4	Chambly	26	12	7	7	39:25	38
5	Dinan	26	11	5	10	41:44	38
6	Stade Briochin	26	10	7	9	31:26	37
7	Beauvais	26	10	7	9	38:31	37
8	Aubervilliers	26	11	3	12	30:39	36
9	Voltigeurs de Chateaubriant	26	8	10	8	29:31	34
10	Racing Club de France	26	10	4	12	30:35	34
11	Lorient II	26	8	8	10	36:39	32
12	Borgo	26	9	3	14	37:49	30
13	AF Virois	26	8	3	15	35:43	27
14	Guingamp II	26	6	2	18	28:50	20