Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Aucas vs Dep. Cuenca

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Aucas play Dep. Cuenca in the Liga Pro. It looks like a close match. Recently, Aucas averaged 1.56 goals scored and 1 conceded. Dep. Cuenca averaged 1.12 goals scored and 1.09 conceded. In past meetings, Aucas won 2, Dep. Cuenca won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 8, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.06 for Aucas and 1.00 for Dep. Cuenca. This points to a Aucas double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Aucas
15%
Draws
38%
Dep. Cuenca
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Aucas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Aucas picked up more points recently compared to Dep. Cuenca.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.06 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 45%
Over 3.5 Goals 27%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 45%
Aucas Clean Sheet 23%
Dep. Cuenca Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 62%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aucas Dep. Cuenca
Matches Played 27 33
Wins 14 14
Draws 6 7
Losses 7 12
Goals Scored 1.56 1.12
Goals Conceded 1 1.09
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 8, 2026 Liga Pro
Aucas vs Dep. Cuenca
0:1
Nov 30, 2025 Liga Pro
Aucas vs Dep. Cuenca
2:1
Oct 26, 2025 Liga Pro
Dep. Cuenca vs Aucas
1:2
Sep 11, 2025 Copa Ecuador
Aucas vs Dep. Cuenca
1:2
Jun 22, 2025 Liga Pro
Aucas vs Dep. Cuenca
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aucas Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Dep. Cuenca Compare

Top Goalscorer Lopez A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aucas 47 / 100
Dep. Cuenca 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aucas Dep. Cuenca

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Aucas or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +20.3%
2.56
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.2%
2.56
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Aucas attacking → ← attacking Dep. Cuenca

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aucas scored in 74% of their last 27 games.

Dep. Cuenca let in goals in 64% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Aucas went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Dep. Cuenca lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

48 Points in last 5 49
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Independiente del Valle17131336:1840
2Barcelona SC1785420:1329
3Aucas1785420:1629
4LDU Quito1783619:1427
5Dep. Cuenca1783618:1927
6U. Catolica1775528:1726
7Tecnico U.1772819:1723
8Macara1765616:1823
9Emelec1765614:1723
10Orense1764722:2422
11Mushuc Runa1756622:2321
12Leones del Norte1755718:1920
13Guayaquil City1754814:2019
14Delfin174589:1617
15Libertad1745817:2517
16Manta1733117:2312