Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Aucas vs Libertad

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda, Quito
Our Tip

Match Events

32'
Gustavino L.
46'
Sub
Monti R. In: Carcelen Carabali M. A.
Out: Monti R.
63'
Sub
Zambrano C. In: Bolanos R.
Out: Zambrano C.

AI Match Summary

Aucas in this Liga Pro matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Aucas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Aucas
35%
Draws
35%
Libertad
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Aucas lately — more wins on the board than Libertad.
  • Win probability leans Aucas's way, sitting at 36%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 36%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Aucas Clean Sheet 20%
Libertad Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aucas Libertad
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 16 11
Draws 5 7
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 1.17 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 30, 2026 Liga Pro
Aucas vs Libertad
1:0
May 2, 2026 Liga Pro
Libertad vs Aucas
3:2
Aug 23, 2025 Liga Pro
Libertad vs Aucas
3:2
May 6, 2025 Liga Pro
Aucas vs Libertad
2:0
Oct 26, 2024 Liga Pro
Libertad vs Aucas
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aucas Compare

Top Goalscorer Quinonez R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Libertad Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aucas 36 / 100
Libertad 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aucas Libertad

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aucas's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Libertad conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Aucas went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Aucas VS Libertad
1.25 Goals Scored 1.5
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.63
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Aucas

(Home)
19 Sept
Aucas
1 : 2
Macara
12 Sept
Manta
0 : 0
Aucas
07 Sept
Aucas
1 : 1
Barcelona SC
03 Sept
U. Catolica
1 : 1
Aucas
30 Aug
Aucas
1 : 0
Libertad
Page 1 of 6

Libertad

(Away)
20 Sept
Emelec
1 : 2
Libertad
13 Sept
Libertad
2 : 3
Independiente del Valle
07 Sept
Dep. Cuenca
0 : 1
Libertad
04 Sept
Libertad
1 : 1
Emelec
30 Aug
Aucas
1 : 0
Libertad
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Independiente del Valle 30 24 2 4 73:33 74
2 U. Catolica 30 14 9 7 51:27 51
3 Macara 30 15 6 9 41:33 51
4 Aucas 30 14 8 8 33:28 50
5 LDU Quito 30 13 7 10 31:24 46
6 Barcelona SC 30 11 11 8 32:25 44
7 Libertad 30 11 8 11 33:34 41
8 Leones del Norte 30 10 9 11 31:32 39
9 Guayaquil City 30 10 9 11 33:36 39
10 Emelec 30 10 9 11 25:34 39
11 Mushuc Runa 30 9 11 10 35:38 38
12 Dep. Cuenca 30 10 6 14 25:37 36
13 Orense 30 9 6 15 36:47 33
14 Tecnico U. 30 10 2 18 28:42 32
15 Delfin 30 7 7 16 19:31 28
16 Manta 30 5 6 19 17:42 21
Promotion - Liga Pro (Championship Group)
Promotion - Liga Pro (Placement Group)
Relegation - Liga Pro (Relegation Group)