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Aucas vs Macara

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda, Quito
Sun, Jul 26, 2026
VS
06:15 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Aucas host Macara in the Liga Pro. This shapes up as a tight, low-scoring affair. Aucas have averaged 1.13 scored and 0.88 conceded recently, against Macara's 0.88 scored and 0.5 conceded. Head-to-head, Aucas have won 1 to Macara's 3, with 1 draws. They last met on Apr 5, 2026, ending 0:1. Model xG sits at 0.81 vs 0.88, favoring Macara. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Aucas
44%
Draws
20%
Macara
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Aucas average 1.13 goals a game right now, well clear of Macara's 0.88.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Regular Liga Pro form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65%
Aucas Clean Sheet 20%
Macara Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aucas Macara
Matches Played 29 32
Wins 16 16
Draws 5 9
Losses 8 7
Goals Scored 1.13 0.88
Goals Conceded 0.88 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 5, 2026 Liga Pro
Macara vs Aucas
0:1
Dec 20, 2025 Liga Pro
Aucas vs Macara
0:2
Oct 5, 2025 Liga Pro
Macara vs Aucas
3:2
Jul 6, 2025 Liga Pro
Aucas vs Macara
1:4
Mar 9, 2025 Liga Pro
Macara vs Aucas
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aucas 36 / 100
Macara 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aucas Macara

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aucas scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Aucas has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Macara has conceded goals in 47% of their last 32 outings.

Scoring Trends

Aucas VS Macara
1.13 Goals Scored 0.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.5
50% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Aucas

(Home)
19 Jul
Tecnico U.
0 : 1
Aucas
16 Jul
Aucas
0 : 3
Independiente del Valle
12 Jul
Dep. Cuenca
0 : 1
Aucas
08 Jul
Aucas
1 : 0
Guayaquil City
31 May
Mushuc Runa
0 : 0
Aucas
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Macara

(Away)
18 Jul
Delfin
2 : 1
Macara
14 Jul
Macara
2 : 1
Mushuc Runa
11 Jul
Tecnico U.
0 : 2
Macara
05 Jul
Macara
1 : 0
LDU Quito
04 Jun
CD Cuenca Juniors
0 : 1
Macara
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Independiente del Valle20161349:2049
2Aucas20105522:1935
3Barcelona SC2097422:1434
4U. Catolica2095631:1832
5Macara2085721:2129
6LDU Quito2084819:1628
7Dep. Cuenca2084819:2328
8Leones del Norte2076721:2027
9Emelec2076717:2327
10Guayaquil City2075818:2226
11Mushuc Runa2066826:3024
12Tecnico U.20721119:2123
13Orense2065923:2823
14Delfin2065913:1923
15Libertad2056918:2621
16Manta2034137:2513
Promotion - Liga Pro (Championship Group)
Promotion - Liga Pro (Placement Group)
Relegation - Liga Pro (Relegation Group)